Puck Picks
NHL Player Prop YTD —— 28-44 (+4.8 Units)
Connor Zary Over 0.5 Goals +420 (1/2 Unit)
Look I’m going to level with you here, I am one game late to the party on this one because in his first game of the season, Zary was seemingly dangerous anytime he touched the puck for the Flames. The 22-year-old was one of the Flames’ best skaters and was rewarded for his effort by notching his first NHL goal in his first NHL game. So why chase this one? Because he had 6 shots on target last game and well folks, I don’t see what would change tonight. If anything, playing for a team in desperate need of offensive punch, his opportunity to contribute should only increase. Moreover, the Canadian has provided goals anywhere he’s played hockey —- whether it be Kamloops in junior, or with Calgary’s AHL team last season, the kid has been a very capable goal scorer. So while the legs are fresh and teams aren’t fully aware of his danger, I’m going to try and hop on the Zary train early with a little wager.
Nicholas Paul Over 0.5 Goals +350 (1/2 Unit)
Hi-Ho, Hi-Ho, back to the well I go on this one, because just like we did on Thursday I will be putting my money on Paul to find twine. Because despite the defensive issues, or perhaps at the behest of them, Tampa’s attack has continued to roll. Particularly, the second line of Stamkos, Paul, and Sheary has carried the play, creating 56% of the expected goals since being put together. The big-time beneficiary of this line’s success so far has been Paul, who has already scored 5 times so far this season and is also manning the net front on the explosive Tampa Powerplay. When you take all of this into account and juxtapose it against what I believe will be a high-scoring game, taking a shot on Paul staying hot almost makes too much sense.
Quinton Byfield Over 0.5 Goals +390 (1/2 Unit)
Another guy I’ll be sprinkling a half-unit for the second time this week on is Kings’ young stud Quinton Byfield, who to start the season has been riding shotgun on the Kings’ top line with Anze Kopitar and Kempe. So far so good I would say, because to start the year he’s using his big body to create space for his linemates. But in particular, the way this line can pile up offensive zone time should trouble a Flyers goaltending situation that will be without their typical starter Carter Hart for tonight’s game. Moreover, with the Flyers playing last night, it is likely to be the #3 goalie on the depth chart for the Flyers in this one. This weakness in goal should in theory only help Byfield’s chances tonight, who has already created 1.26 expected goals per 60. This is approximately the type of production that would see a player score 25 goals if continued throughout 82 games. So with that in mind, I’ll gladly take this +390 number and hope my math is mathing, and Byfield pays us out (this time) on my perceived expected value
Jack Roslovic Over 0.5 Goals +320 (1/2 Unit)
As you know if you read this morning’s newsletter, I like the Jackets tonight in DC as road dogs against the Capitals. Washington has been a pretty disappointing team this season, the defense is allowing far too many Grade A chances to opposition forwards, and frankly, I don’t trust their goaltending as far as I can throw. So with that in mind, I’m going to target a BlueJacket forward who is carrying play offensively right now, and considering the other prices available on the likes of Gaudreau or Fantili, I settled on Roslovic. The American has arguably been the best skater for the Jackets, and since being put on a line with Fantilii a few games ago, the pair has looked a threat on almost every shift. And in a matchup against a Capitals team I’m low on relative to the market, that’s enough for me to pay to be wrong.
John-Jason Peterka Over 0.5 Goals +400 (1/2 Unit)
Look there is likely some value to be had on most of Buffalo’s Top-6 tonight in this matchup against Toronto. Despite all the hoopla that almost always follows the Leafs, the reality of how this team plays night to night doesn’t leave me feeling hopeful Lord Stanley will return to the center of the hockey universe in the spring. The back-end of the Leafs have struggled immensely so far this season, allowing opposition attacks to create 3.14 expected goals a game. But the reason I am looking at JJ Peterka to score tonight is because of how poorly the 2nd and 3rd pair of the Leafs defense, in particular, has looked. TJ Brodie is a disaster, Klinberg hasn’t been great himself, and the third pairing of William Lagesson and Maxime Lajoie have hardly proven themselves as everyday NHLers. So with the likelihood that Peterka skates against those pairings, I see some value in a little sprinkle on him to bulge the potato sack.
James van Riemsdyk Over 0.5 Goals +380
The Association
NBA Player Prop YTD ——- 21-11 (+11.58U)