A (free) Cornucopia of Player Props
Picks and Analysis from the NBA/NHL Player Prop Market (Nov. 11th)
Lost all your money betting on college football? Want a little extra money in the bankroll for an NFL Sunday? Or are you just a degenerate gambler who looks at his account and doesn’t see enough action?
Well whatever the reason, I’ve got you covered with a plethora of player props I think are showing value this evening that you can add to the portfolio. Between the 10 hockey games and 4 NBA basketball games set to get started after dinner, there is money to be made before the beers start flowing, so lock in folks, and let’s get after it.
Puck Picks
Player Prop YTD Record ——- 36-54 (+11.8 Units)
Tom Wilson Over 2.5 SOGs +114
The NHL’s bad boy Tom Wilson is the first of my player propositions for this evening’s games, as the often hated winger is producing some solid numbers for a Capitals team that needs it. Over his past 10 games, Wilson has notched 8 points, and he’s doing it by getting pucks on the net. Wilson trails only the Great8 on the Capitals in terms of shot attempts per 60, and in a matchup against the Isles, that bodes incredibly well. The Islanders have given up a league-worst 38 shots on goal over the last 10 games while averaging 4 penalties a game in that time. What that means for TommyBoy is that he should have ample opportunity to test the keeper tonight, and I’m more than happy to back him considering the number.
Connor Zary Over 0.5 Goals +380 1/2 Unit
Connor Zary has been a much-needed jolt in the arm for the Flames offense since being inserted into the lineup 10 days ago because the kid has been performing. Through 4 games he’s created 1.3 expected goals, is averaging 3+ shot attempts per game, and has 4 points to show for his hard work. So while his number has inched a little lower, I don’t think it is quite far enough for tonight’s matchup with the Senators. As I mentioned in my release this morning, Ottawa has been a poor defensive team so far this year, and just can’t stay out of the sin-bin. The ladder is of particular importance with Zary playing on the Flames’ #1PP unit. So let’s get gnarly with Zary tonight in hopes of helping him find twine and cash us a nice little +380 banker.
Miles Wood Over 0.5 Goals +460 1/2 Unit
In professional sports often injury proves opportunity, and Miles Wood of the Colorado Avalanche will likely find himself in one of such situations tonight as the Avalanche host the Blues. 1st line-winger Artturi Lehkonen is set to miss a couple of weeks for the Avs due to injury, and the guy pegged to potentially fill that role is Wood. Wood, who before this year had spent his entire career with the Devils, has always had a nose for the net. The Buffalo-born winger has scored 10+ goals in each of his previous 6 seasons, primarily in a Bottom-6 role, but the reason for the excitement is his potential linemates. MacKinnon and Rantanen are two of the premier players in the league, and playing alongside them he should spent plenty of time in the opponent’s end.
Kailer Yamamoto Over 0.5 Goals +380 1/2 Unit
Call it narrative chasing if you’d like to, but tonight’s matchup between Seattle and Edmonton will be the first time that former Oiler Kailler Yamamoto will be going against the team that let him walk out of the door over the offseason, and who doesn’t thrive on showing a past love what they are missing? Now that’s not the whole of it though; Yamamoto is currently playing on the Kraken’s 1st Line and Powerplay, which means the opportunity will almost certainly be there against an Oilers team whose defensive struggles are why the team is in turmoil. Hell, it might not even need to take a high-quality opportunity to cash this one with the way the Oilers’ goaltending situation is performing
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Jamer Van Riemsdyk Over 0.5 PP Point +375 1/2 Unit
For the last one of my player props from the ice this evening I’m going to be putting some money on Bruins winger JVR to pick up a point on the Powerplay. The reasoning for this one is two-fold; he’s the net-front presence on a powerplay for the Bruins that is clicking, scoring 4 goals in their last 3 games. This hot Bruins Powerplay will be going against the Habs PK who is struggling, keeping the puck out of their net when down a man at only a 75% clip. Additionally, its been worse as of late, having allowed Powerplay goals in 6 of their last 8 games overall.
With those things considering if you are going to give me a nearly 4-1 chance at him finding the score sheet with the man advantage, I’m going to grab it and hope the Bruins v Canadiens matchup rekindles old grudges.
The Association
YTD Record ——- 34-21-1(+14.2 Units)
Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists -113 (Play to -120)
The Cavaliers travel to the Bay for a late-night affair with the Warriors, and I think it’s a great spot to target a Garland playmaking masterclass. The Cavaliers’ guard should find some success against whoever’s matched up against him defensively from the Warriors, and his 26.2% Usage rate and willingness to pass (40% of team assists) should see him continue to rack up the potential assists. So far this year Garland is producing nearly 12 potential assists per night, however, his teammates are shooting 7% below league average on the same attempts. Hard to imagine that doesn’t normalize at least a little bit, and if it does for us this evening, don’t be surprised if Garland ends up with 10+ dimes dropped.
Jrue Holiday Under 5.5 Rebounds +108 (play to -102)
Sometimes in this gambling game, it pays to go against the grain, and I’m hoping this is one of those situations. Despite the recent bump in Holiday rebounding, my projections are expecting the Celtic guard to grab just 5.09, and when the projections tell me to go Under, Under shall I go! Firstly, this game with the Raptors should be a slog. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace, and both teams are inside the top 5 in terms of defensive efficiency. Fewer shot attempts mean fewer rebounds and with the defensive assignment likely to be Shroeder, his around-the-rim opportunities will take a step back from where they’ve been the past few games. LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO.
Markelle Fultz Under 4.5 Assists +105 (Play to -104)
Typically it would be the case that I would be targeting the Bucks as a team to attack overs against. They’ve played at the league’s 6th fastest pace so far this season, and the Damian Lilliard for Jru Holiday swap has meant the point-of-attack defense for the Bucks is significantly worse as illustrated by their 24th-ranked defensive efficiency. But with the status of Liliard still unknown (likely out), I question whether we see the same defensive problems or pace that we’ve seen so far. Beyond just the matchup though, the Magic have a lot of creators on this roster. Paolo, Franz, Suggs, and Cole Anthony are all comfortable and willing to initiate the offense, thereby, in theory, drastically reducing Fultz’s opportunities. In terms of projections, I’ve got Fultz projected for 3.96 assists, so get our the limbo stick and let’s go under
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