Plenty of action from this evening’s hockey slate on the docket for me today, as you might expect when the NHL schedules 14 games in one evening. So with that in mind I decided to open up this morning’s newsletter to all subscribers, with it being the holiday season for my Yankee readers’ I wanted to give thanks. And with any luck, by the time tomorrow morning comes you’ll have a little extra cash fluffin’ your pockets to flush on some NFL TD parlays.
That said, if you are like me and feeling a little more thankful than usual, why not subscribe to the paid version of the newsletter today!? You’ll get access to each and every pick yours truly gives out (including a cornucopia of player prop pieces this afternoon), as well as Pitch Picks from England and Europe’s best league.
The best part? It costs about as much as a beer at a sporting event.
Puck Picks
YTD Record ——- 106-148-2 (+3.8 Units)
Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals
This evening’s matchup between the Sabres and Capitals sets up to be a perfect little “Buy-Low, Sell-High” spot from my point of view, because as poor as Buffalo has been without Tage Thompson, seeing this Capitals team lay -120 in a non-rest advantage spot to the Sabres feels as if perhaps we’ve too dramatically adjusted our priors.
Yes, the Sabres have indeed been poor so far this season, and yes the injury to Tage Thompson is meaningful, but I think at this point we’ve downgraded them too heavily. Even without Tage, on paper, this offense has more than enough firepower to score goals. Alex Tuch, JJ Peterka, Dylan Cozens, and Jeff Skinner are all above-average offensive pieces capable of breaking open a game, and while it’s not seen them put up goddy offensive numbers yet, the 2.53 expected goals at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes that the Sabres create is still significantly better than the Capitals have shown to be. Now defensively for Buffalo the situation isn’t exactly pretty, but as poor as the goal prevention has been this season, I’m not so certain the Capitals are primed to take advantage.
The reason for that is pretty straightforward, the elite offensive talent that the Capitals have become known for is old and regressing. So while the structure defensively is pretty sound, the attack just isn’t generating enough big-time scoring chances. Entering tonight’s game the Capitals are 29th in the league in terms of high-danger chances created, and this general lack of high-danger chance creation is a large part of why they rank 27th in expected goals %. Moreover, the catalyst for the impressive 4-game win streak the Capitals enter tonight’s game on has been elite goaltending. Through 5 games Charlie Lindgren has graded out to be amongst the best goalies in the NHL this season, and while that is an interesting tidbit, it is hard to envision it continuing for the long term.
Lastly, from a power rankings perspective, I have the Sabres graded above the Capitals and if we were to remove home-ice advantage the market is saying these two teams are on even footing. This disagreement is the basis for my bet, and while there is a chance my downgrade on the Sabres without Thompson is significant enough, I just have to trust my numbers. Otherwise, why make them?
Sabres ML +110 (play to +105)
New York Rangers v Pittsburgh Penguins
Despite what the most recent outing for the Rangers might have you thinking, a 6-3 loss to the Stars, this group is still very much a team that will play more games to the Under than they will to the Over. A large portion of that has to do with the brilliance of Igor Shesterkin, but some credit is due to Peter Laviolette as well. This season the Rangers have taken a significant step forward from a defensive metrics standpoint, ranking 7th in terms of expected goals against allowed, and are doing so by allowing the league’s 2nd fewest shots on goal. This type of defensive structure when paired with an offensive group that is more timely than over-powering has all the makings of a team that’ll be going under, especially when lined at 6.5 as it is tonight.
Now across the ice from the Rangers are the hometown Penguins, who in theory present a pretty big threat to the idea this game will stay Under. Crosby and Co. have produced some of the most impressive offensive numbers from an xG standpoint all season, however, upon closer inspection, more can be gleaned. En route to producing a league lead in expected goals at 5-on-5, the Penguins have fluffed their numbers against the lesser sides of the league. At the same time, in games against the Canes, Knights, and Stars the 5-on-5 numbers return to something closer to the league average. Now this isn’t meant to come off as if I think Pittsburgh’s attack is bad, but I think they’ve beaten up on downtrodden and are sporting inflated numbers because of it.
So get out the Limbo Stick folks, we are going UNDER.
Under 6.5 -120 (play to -131)
Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers
Two of the Eastern Conference elite will lock horns this evening down in Sunrise Florida as The Bruins and Panthers will be renewing acquaintances, and despite what the records might suggest, the team that has been the most impressive of the two for me has been the Sunshine Kitties.
Florida, who despite having played the majority of the season so far without their 2 best defensemen, enter tonight’s game with the league’s 4th best-expected goals % at 5-on-5 (55.4%), and have done so by playing a well-rounded game at both ends of the ice. In terms of both expected goals for and against the Panthers are in the top quarter of the league, and with Ekblad and Montour now back in the lineup it’s hard to imagine those numbers don’t improve. It took some time, but Paul Maurice’s vision for this team has clearly worked beautifully, as the team has not been hampered or drained from last season’s deep playoff run. If anything the team is re-committed to the North-South game that Maurice preaches, and the size and sand-paper up and down this lineup makes the Panthers a bastard to play against each and every night.
Speaking of teams who are bastards to play against, the Boston Bruins enter tonight’s game with the Cats as slight road favorites, and you can understand why to a certain extent. For going on the better part of a year now the Bruins just don’t lose hockey games, as their 13-1-3 record is seemingly just a continuation of the record-breaking year they had last regular season. The goaltending remains far and away the best tandem in hockey and the structure that this team has played with since Montgomery took over last season means that the opposition teams struggle to score every night. That being said, while the losses of Bergeron and Krejci haven’t meant ruin, they have meant some slippage. In terms of expected goals %, the Bruins rank 10th, and perhaps a little more telling is the fact that the Bruins are losing the shot attempts battle fairly regularly, posting a 48.89 Corsi%. The team is just not carrying play to the same level as they did for large stretches of last year, and while their goaltending and structure provide a floor that typically allows them to grind out wins against inferior opponents, I think the Bruins project to struggle against teams of the Panthers’ ilk.
So while it is unlikely you’ll ever get rich betting against the Bruins, that won’t stop me from trying to pick them off when it makes sense, and tonight I think by backing the Panthers as a slim home favorite we’ve got a valuable chance.
Panthers ML +110 (play +105)
Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders
After starting the year as the world’s largest Coyotes fan I have now transitioned to being a Philly Scumbag, because why in the world is the market still so drastically underrating this team?
Because this evening on the Island the Flyers will look to build off their five-game winning streak in a road matchup against the Islanders. Prior to the season, many had written the Flyers and John Tortorella into the lottery, but the boys in the locker room had other plans. The group is playing some incredible hockey, ranking second in the Metropolitan Division entering tonight’s matchup, and honestly, unless someone can illustrate to me why they are bound to fall apart, I’m just going to keep betting this team at (+) money.
The 5-on-5 play has been exceptional, as The Flyers are seventh in Expected Goals with a solid 54.6 xGF%. And as you might expect from a Tort’s team that is fully bought in, defensively they’ve been even better, playing to a fifth-best 2.33 xGA/60. This type of defensive rigidity and structure when played in front of a resurgent Carter Hart (.919 save percentage and a +0.6 Goals Saved Above Expected) provides a platform to compete every night, and until the likes of Tippet, Konechy, and Farabee begin to slow down, this offense has some horses to run behind.
Meanwhile, as much as things change, they have more or less stayed the same for the Islanders. It’s just the same old vanilla hockey that we’ve seen for more than 2 years from the Isles because even despite strong play from Barzal and Horvart this group ranks 17th with a 49.75 xGF%. The only big change has come defensively, and honestly, it’s not the type of change you’d hope for if you are an Islanders fan. Once known for its structured defensive play, the Islanders have been getting destroyed on defense this season, allowing the opposition to create 2.97 expected goals against per 60 minutes. And while in the past all-world goalie Ilya Sorokin would erase a whole wide array of defensive breakdowns, the Russian goalie has not played his best hockey. The former Vezina nominee is only playing to a .906 save percentage and a -0.7 GSAx. Those aren't bad numbers for a regular netminder, but for Sorokin, it’s very underwhelming and spells ruin for an Islanders’ team who has been so reliant on him over the past few seasons.
Flyers ML +135 (play to +127)