Puck Picks
NHL YTD Record ——- 97-136-2 (+3.7 Units)
Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes
As the saying goes in this gambling game “We bet lines, not teams”, and this evening's matchup in Carolina represents this credo brilliantly in my estimation. While it is hard to argue against the fact that the Hurricanes are certainly the better hockey team, I’m not so sure they are deserving of such a hefty price tag this evening against the Flyers.
The reason for this apprehension in fading the Flyers at this price has a lot to do with John Tortorella. The often-maligned Flyers coach is once again working his magic with a team no one believed in because, despite Philly’s pre-season expectations, this team is playing some damn good hockey. Particularly, as one might expect with the talent and coaching, The Flyers are playing with amazing defensive structure. It is this structure and discipline defensively that has seen Philly producing an expected goals share of 53.98%, and limiting the opposition to the third-fewest shots allowed, averaging 27.5 shots per game. This in addition to some solid play from starting goalie Carter Hart, the Canadien has posted a .913 save percentage and 2.52 GAA before tonight’s matchup, means that the brand of hockey Philly is playing is very hard to get margin against. Teams just haven’t been tilting the ice and creating chances in bunches against the Flyers, and while the offense often leaves much to be desired, when being priced like they are tonight, Philly is going to have some value in my estimation.
Now that’s not to say I think the Hurricanes are a bad hockey team, but the -250 ML odds currently available imply that if this game were played 10 times, the Hurricanes would win 7 of them. So while their possession numbers remain amongst the best in the league, and they have a pretty tangible rest advantage over the visiting Flyers, nothing about Carolina’s game in relation to Philly’s makes me feel like the Hurricanes win 7 out of 10 times. Both teams are proving themselves to be very solid defensive teams who limit shot attempts to an elite level, and in a game that profiles to be low-event, where Philly should in theory have the goaltending edge, I have a hard time justifying this price on the Hurricanes.
So grab your guns folks, because we are going big game hunting again this evening by taking the Flyers on the ML as +220 underdogs.
Flyers ML +220 (Play to +211)
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