With it being the first week of the new look newsletter I figured I’d make the EPL Weekend Preview article free to all subscribers. Now this won’t always be the case moving forward for these releases, but having had this be a free resource for so long, I just wanted to continue providing as much value as I can to those who were the first to enjoy the content! And hopefully, upon reading a little more you’ll feel inclined to upgrade your subscription to the paid version so as to not miss a single day of betting glory.
Best of luck with all your wagering this weekend, and don’t be shy to go grab a beer and wings at the local watering hole.
Pitch Picks
Newsletter Record —- 0-0-0
YTD Record —— 37-31-1 (+12.64Units)
Brighton v Everton
Of the 11 AM games on the schedule Saturday in the Premier League, the one that might end up exciting the neutrals is this match between Everton and Brighton. While it may be true the continued crisis at ManUnited draws more attention, just as a car accident does, I fully expect this match between the Seaguls and the Toffees to feature tons of attacking action at both ends of the pitch. One need look no further then the last time these two teams played as an example of how hectic these games can get —- Everton won 5-1 while Brighton created 3.7xG in a loss. Such is the risk you run by playing the style that De Zerbi does at Brighton, but frankly, it’s hard to argue too much with the results.
Since taking over after the departure of Graham Potter the attacking football Brighton played to close last year was amongst the best in the world, and it’s not tailed off in the slightest this year. Entering tomorrow’s game Brighton is creating 1.74xG per match, good for 4th highest in the Premier League, and now with a week of rest ahead of this game, I fully expect we see another high-flying attacking performance from the Seagulls. However, as we saw last year and a few times already this year, when you press in the style that Brighton does, it can certainly leave you vulnerable in transition, and the Toffees have quietly become an offensive juggernaut themselves under Sean Dyche.
No that isn’t a typo, Sean Dyche’s Everton is creating an impressive 1.52 xG per 90 this season and is doing it by pressing higher up the pitch and looking to capitalize on the high turnovers that hopefully come along with it. And so long as Dominique Calvert-Lewin is healthy, this team has the type of finishing that can take advantage of even the smallest of opportunities. And frankly, those opportunities will come at some point as they have for every team that has played Brighton, who have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
So with a pair of attacking sides that are questionable defensively meeting up, I figured I’d start my Saturday morning off by hunting a juicy (+) sign in this game by backing a little SGP Both Teams To Score x Over 3.5 Goals +153 (Play to +133)
If for some reason you prefer to take the coward’s way out and grab an Over 2.5 x BTTS I do see a similar level of value on that bet. Many ways to skin a cat folks.
Wolves vs Sheffield United
I won’t like to you folks, riding with me on this one is going to take what I like to call intestinal fortitude, because as Wolves visit Sheffield United tomorrow morning I’ll be placing my hard-earned money on the league’s worst side to find a way to secure some points. Because even with how bad Sheffield has looked so far through 10 games, and it’s been almost record-breaking bad, I just cannot fathom making a Pedro Neto-less Wolves this level of a favorite on the road to any Premier League team as currently constructed.
Because even with Neto this season Wolves have not been good, putting up a -4.4 expected goal differential through 10 Premier League games, and now without him in the lineup, this Wolves team might find themselves in serious relegation trouble. I think that there is a pretty compelling argument that so far this season he’s been the single most important player to his team in the league, and now with him sidelined for an extended time, an already blunt attack becomes even more dull. He leads his team by a wide margin in both carries and passes into the penalty area, and without his 7 assists this season moving forward where does the creativity come from? I struggle to find a believable answer to that question.
Now on the otherside, the picture is about as ugly as it gets for Sheffield United. They are bottom in almost every important category in terms of defending, and the attack ain’t much better either. That being said, since swapping formations from the 3-5-2 to a more traditional 4-4-2 they’ve done a much better job at limiting the opposition’s ability to play through the middle of the pitch. And in a match against a Wolves team missing its best wide-creator, that should be a recipe for improved results. Moreover, despite the struggles Sheffield has managed to score in 60% of their games so far this season, and going up against this depleted Wolves team might just be what the doctor ordered if Sheffield is going to get their first win. So hold your nose, and let’s get dirty with Sheffield United.
Sheffield United +295 (Play to +281) .5U
Sheffield United +0.5 -108 (Play to +100) .5U
Brentford vs West Ham
West Ham picked up a victory in the Carabao Cup at home against Arsenal on Wednesday, but David Moyes's squad will now be playing their fourth match in 10 days on Saturday as they travel across London for a match against Brentford. And not only do the Bees have the rest advantage, but Brentford will also get an undermined West Ham size as visitors on Saturday. Both Edson Alvarez and Lucas Paqueta will miss this match due to yellow card accumulation, and without the playmaking of Paqueta in particular, I imagine West Ham will struggle to score.
Now in fairness struggling to score is what a lot of teams tend to do against Brentford because although they will allow the opposition plenty of final third touches, Thomas Frank' has devised a defense that limits box entries and big chances. And while the counter-attacking numbers have certainly fallen off in the absence of Ivan Toney, what remains is a group that excels in dead-ball situations. Entering Saturday’s match Brentford ranks 3rd in the league at xG created per set piece, which should in theory be poissed to take advantage of a West Ham defence that has struggled all season long at defending dead-balls (18th in xG allowed from set pieces).
Moreover, it probably won’t take more than 2 goals to secure the win for Brentford, because as mentioned earlier, the loss of Paqueta offensively sets up a very real possibility we witness a rather uninspiring performance from West Ham going forward. Because outside of Paqueta, the offensive creation will be left to the likes of Michael Antonio, who has attempted just 2 total shots in his last 7 matches. And while the goals against numbers don’t immediately look like a problem, that has been thanks in large part to some heroics of goalkeeper Alphonse Areola. Areola has time and time again bailed his backline out this season, and expecting him to continue performing at the level of Alison seems like a fools’ errand.
So with the market more or less implying the only difference between these two sides is that Brentford will be playing at home, I am more than Buzzin’ to back the Bees to pick up 3-points in the first of two London Derby’s on tap for this weekend in the Premier League.
Brentford ML +105 (play to -109)
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
The ageless wonder Roy Hodgson and his Eagles of Crystal Palace will travel to Burnley on Saturday in search of points against relegation-battling Vincent Kompany’s Clarets, and I see no reason one should expect a particularly exciting fixture. Even under the best of circumstances, Palace’s attack is hardly menacing, but since the injury to Eze 3 matches ago, the often impotent attack of the Eagles has become worryingly mediocre, creating a parsley 2.46xG over the past 3 games. That said, for years now Hodgson’s ethos has been if you can’t score at the very least be resolute at the back, and that hasn’t left this squad so far this year. On the season the Eagles have conceded an average of just 3.5 shots on target per game, which ranks third-lowest in the league, only behind Arsenal and Manchester City. A rather elite company to keep I would say, and although the goalkeeper has been ghastly at times, I do have faith that the worst is behind Sam Johnstone, and moving forward he can make the odd save when called upon.
And honestly, even if Johnstone can’t manage to shake off his poor form, I’m not sure Burnley will be able to properly test him all that often. This is because, despite all the talk of beautiful football and the Kompany method, Burnley’s attack is just not one that can be relied on. Through 10 games of the season, Burnley has created on .8 non-penalty shot xG, which ranks the Clarets 2nd bottom in the Premier League. The reality is Kompany’s slow build-up style of attacking play which worked so well for Burnley last year in the Championship just hasn’t been able to translate to this level. Opposition defenses are just too well-drilled and talented, and the offensive talent that was able to light up the Championship just hasn’t illustrated the ability to adjust.
So with both teams struggling in attack, I think it best to stay off the side and look instead to the prop market for some action on what projects to be a boring affair.
Both Teams To Score No -117 (Play to -124)
Newcastle v Arsenal
In the standalone match on Saturday afternoon Arsenal will be traveling North to face (my) Newcastle United Magpies at St. James Park in the only match of the weekend between two Top-4 teams from the year prior. And with the Magpies fresh of a 3-0 drubbing of Manchester United in the midweek as well as a 2-2 draw the weekend prior, one might be drawn to the over in this match. However from my point of view, it is actually the Under that is showing value, and there are a few reasons why.
The first of which has to do with Arteta’s Gunners, who have managed to secure points in each of their first 10 games despite the offense struggling at times. So far this season in neutral game states Arsenal is creating just 1.17 xG Per-90, and much of the downtick in their offensive numbers has to do with their inability to effectively play through the middle of the pitch. In my estimation there are two reasons to think these struggles are likely to persist —- the first Kai Havertz has flopped, and the second is that although Declan Rice is an elite #8, his line-breaking passing ability is not of the quality of Thomas Partey. When these struggles are paired with the fact that the transition offense has been generally absent for Arsenal so far this season, and it’s hard to imagine the Gunners really lighting the place a blaze going forward.
That being said, while the attack of the Gunners has struggled, the defense has been incredibly impressive. Arsenal is only allowing 0.71 npxG per 90 minutes through 10 games of the Premier League season, which is the best in the division. They have also only allowed two big scoring chances, and while the build-up play is more controlled, it also means opposition attacks are having to defend for much of the game. The proof is in the pudding, so far this season are seeing more than 60% possession game to game, and while critics might point to a mediocre attack, it’s hard to argue with those who instead take notice of the elite defending going on.
Lastly, as much as it pains me to say it as a Newcastle supporter, the stress of the Champions League fixture list has meant Eddie Howe is left with very few options in terms of team selection. The losses of Barnes, Isaak, Tonali, and Jakub Murphy to suspension and injury have left the attacking part of the squad rather devoid of options. What this is most likely to mean is we’ll see Newcastle play a defensive style, allowing Arsenal to possess the ball while looking to counter. It’s a style that has served them well over the past 12 months, but it is also a style that really functions at its best when Isaak is fit. With Wilson playing centrally the attack has a tendency to bog down, and while I hope I’m wrong, I forsee a rather defensive and pragmatic approach from the Mags.
So with that in mind, I’ve loaded up a little extra greenback on the Under 2.5 +102 (Play to -116), while also sprinkling a 2/3’s Unit wager on the 1st Half Under 0.5 Goals +150 (.67U)