With it being the season of giving thanks I thought it would make sense to unlock this weekend’s Premier League League Preview to all readers. I have enjoyed a fair bit of success so far this season, and hopefully manage to add to the 17 Units of profit with the picks below.
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Pitch Picks
YTD Record ——- 46-38-1 (+17 Units)
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
10AM Saturday, Nov. 25th
Out to snap a six-game winless run in the Premier League, Brighton & Hove Albion travel north to take on Nottingham Forest in a Saturday morning affair, and while the tough run of form prior to the international break has some pondering if De Zerbi Ball has been “figured out”, I remain resolute in my fandom of this Flock of Seagulls.
The reason for my enthusiasm surrounding Brighton for this weekend’s match in Nottingham is centered around two driving forces; the first of which is that I think De Zerbi’s side has earned more respect than the market is showing them. If I were to ask you which team is better, Villa or Brighton? Perhaps some might say Villa, but I think the majority of educated pitch prognosticators would answer Brighton. Yet Brighton is +120 on Saturday, while Villa was -120 away from home against the same Forest team just prior to the break. Obviously, this isn’t an exact science, and there are necessary caveats, but very little of material importance for either Forest or Brighton has changed in the time gone by, which indicates to me perhaps Brighton has been too severely downgraded off the heels of a poor run of form.
But beyond Brighton’s relative pricing, the reason for me backing them is an almost innate belief in De Zerbi and his team being capable of finding the tactics and application necessary to strike a more effective balance between attack and defense. Because while it is true the attack that the footballing world marveled at has more or less disappeared over the recent run of poor form, but what isn’t being spoken enough about is how strong the defensive numbers are throughout that span. In each of the last four matches Brighton has played the opposition has created less than 1 xG, and while the attacks they’ve held in check aren’t exactly amongst the league’s elite (outside of ManCity), neither is the one they’ll be playing Saturday.
In the second year since promotion, Nottingham Forest is in the midst of comfortably retaining their position in England’s Premier League, but that has not been because they’ve been scoring boatloads of goals. The 14th-placed Tricky Trees have been a team whose defending has been their strength, sitting deep and forgoing possession in favor of direct counterattacks. These acts have proven effective at limiting opposition scoring, but the otherside of that resolute defending is a struggling attack. If you remove the games against the relegation sides this season Forest has averaged 0.67 non-penalty xG per match this season, and I’m not sure there’s going to be a significant upturn anytime soon. Taiwo Awoniyi’s groin injury means Chris Woods will lead the line, and with all due respect to the Kiwi, but the man just doesn’t have a skill set to make the most out of the space behind Brighton’s high line.
Without Awoniyi’s pace and strength, the direct style of play the Tricky Trees play is one that’ll struggle even more than it has already, and while the defense has been resolute, I think it likely that Brighton will have made the most of the international break and will return with an attacking strategy that bears fruit.
Brighton ML +120 (play to +114)
Arsenal vs Brentford
1230PM Saturday, Nov. 25th
Depending on the outcome of Manchester City and Liverpool's encounter, Arsenal could potentially end the weekend at the top of the Premier League table with victory over London rivals Brentford on Saturday evening. However, my point of betting interest in this game has nothing to do with which team wins, because as long as both teams don’t score 3 combined goals or more I will be content with whichever team wins. In other words, I like this match to go Under.
Firstly, as I’ve spoken about a couple of times now, the home side Brentford Bee’s are amongst the most effective “low-block” teams in all of Europe’s top leagues. Thomas Frank’s 3-5-2 formation is incredibly solid at making the middle of the park difficult to play through, leading to a lot of empty possession for opposition sides. This bears itself out when you look into the numbers as well. Entering Saturday’s game Brentford has allowed the third-fewest touches/passes inside their 18-yard box in the league, and are doing so despite having one of the most lopsided field tilts.
A great man once said; “Many believe a team with more possession is more dominant. But that depends on how you look at it. A team without the ball can still have control…”
Well, Brentford from my perspective fits this description beautifully. They seldom own the majority of the ball but often remain in control of the game. That being said, the attack is basically entirely on the shoulders of Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa, which is to say it’s not exactly the most threatening. The absence of Toney has truly limited this team’s potential, and while he remains out the attack will struggle to create.
Moreover, the reason for the Gunners position (potentially) atop the table is their world-class defending. In their last 4 matches across all competitions, no team has created more than 1xG, and 3 of 4 have failed to even produce 0.5xG. So while the at times passive possession style Arteta’s employed hasn’t set the opposition net ablaze, the extent to which they control possession just gives the opposition so little time to attack. Only twice this season has Arsenal had less than 60% possession, but nonetheless, excluding penalties, Arsenal ranks 11th for expected goals (xG) in the league so far. As a great mind once said, life’s all about tradeoffs, and for Arsenal it’s undeniably true that they’ve traded some attacking potency for some defensive rigidity.
So with both teams’ strengths being their defensive structure, and with Arsenal at times struggling to break down teams willing and capable of surrendering possession and defending resolutely their 18-yard box, I am projecting about 24 cents of value on the Under. So let’s just LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO Under this total on route to the bank.
Under 2.5 +104 (play to -106)
Aston Villa vs Tottenham
9 AM, Sunday, Nov. 26th
The overriding question regarding this match between Villa and Spurs boils down to how much one downgrades Tottenham because of the injuries. At least 5 first-team players will miss this Sunday’s contest, and frankly, it wouldn’t be crazy to classify 4 of them among the most influential members of the side. Both Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven are starting center-backs whose pace is key to the high-line Postecoglou employs defensively. A similar thing could be said about Yves Bissouma, whose ball-winning and engine in the center of the park is central to the counter-pressing Spurs have employed so effectively. But perhaps most worrisome is the absence of James Madison, who since signing from Leicester in the summer has been part of the largest percentage of his team's goals this season. The Spurs attack that is already without Richardson is very likely to struggle now that they will be missing The Mad Hatter as well because his passing range and shot creation far surpass any of the potential replacements that Postecoglou might look toward from the bench.
Now in the opposing dugout, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa couldn’t have been pleased to see their momentum stunted by an international break. Prior to the break, no team in England was in better form than the Villians, as Aston Villa had won 8 of their last 9 matches across all competitions. Now it’s true the bulk of those results came against inferior opponents from both the bottom of the Premier League table and abroad, it is the consistency that is so impressive. To play Thursday in the mid-week in the Netherlands and return to England and record 6 points is an impressive feat regardless of competition. Beyond just the recent run of victories, this Villa team has performed well all season from an xG perspective. Only 5 other clubs have a better xG differential than Emery’s side, and only Arsenal and ManCity are allowing teams to create less.
So with the injury bug having ravaged such key pieces of the Spurs side, and with Villa entering in such fine form, I can’t help but back the visitors. Unai Emery was once unfairly chased from the country at Arsenal, but now with Villa, he may really become a problem for England’s biggest sides. His tactical fluidity and ability to set teams to effectively counterattack profiles well against bigger sides, especially ones like Spurs who just don’t have the typical match-winners available.
Villa ML +180 (play to +167)
Wolves vs Fulham
3 PM, Monday, Nov. 27th
This week Monday Night Football UK Edition will be played from Craven Cottage as Fulham plays host to Wolves in a match that projects to mirror most NFL PrimeTime games —— widely underwhelming. That being said sometimes the best games to bet on are the ones the least worth watching, and that just so happens to be the case with this one. Because I can’t for the life of me understand why Fulham without Paulinho are favorites to any team in the Premier League.
Even with Paulinho Fulham has regressed drastically this season in most facets of the game. They are 18th in the league in xG, 15th in xGA and have conceded the fifth-most shots on target so far this season. The replacements for Mitrovic have failed miserably to replicate even an approximation of his impact, and the combination of Willian and De Cordova-Reid simply doesn’t provide enough shots to carry an underperforming striker. These struggles to create offense will only be exacerbated without Paulinha who is set to miss this game because of yellow-card accumulation. The Brazilian is perhaps the single most important player to his team, as his 56 tackles + interceptions are 40 more than the next-highest member of the Fulham midfield. Lacking his ball-winning and defensive range the already shaky defending of Fulham could really struggle in transition situations.
And it is these very transition situations that Gary O’Neil’s Wolverhampton Wanderers will hope to make the most of. Because just as he did last year for Bournemouth, O’Neil has crafted a formidable defense that has just enough offensive output to never be relegation-threatened. Wolves are 12th in the table entering Monday’s match, 10 points clear of the relegation zone, and while the style of football won’t win them many neutral supporters, it is illustrating itself as an effective strategy. After the slow start that saw them drop 4 of their first 5, Wolves have earned 12 points through 7 games while losing just once. The attack although not high-flying has scored in eleven consecutive matches, and with how poor the attack has been for Fulham, one single goal might be enough to find three points.
At the end of the day, the harsh reality for Fulham fans is that they are looking at a relegation battle down the barrel if things don’t improve. Unfortunately, short of making some shrewd January additions via the transfer market, this team projects to continue to struggle, with or without Paulinha. So with that in mind, give me Wolves to cash us a hefty ML dog. My numbers say they are the better team, and while Craven Cottage has proven a tough away trip, I think Wolves are up for ruining the home crowd’s Monday evening.
Wolves ML +210 (play to +198)