The weekend is finally here, and with it comes the return of Premier League football to the betting cards. So far this season I’ve made some solid improvements to my pocketbook betting on the beautiful game in the Queen’s country, and this weekend’s schedule of games is my favorite yet from a betting perspective. So if you’ve not done so already Subscribe today because while this evening’s newsletter release is free to all, the Sunday slate that features 5 bets will be for premium subscribers only.
So have 1 less whiskey sour tonight at the bar and start planning the March trip to the Bahamas now, because we are bankrupting some bookies, and you are silly if you don’t want to get in on the fun(winning).
Pitch Picks
YTD Record —— 50-40-1 (+20.1 Units)
Sheffield United vs Burnley
10AM, Saturday, Dec. 2nd
Both teams enter Saturday’s match reeling from harrowing home defeats in their most recent Premier League affairs, as Burnley and Sheffield United square off at Turf Moor in Saturday's basement battle. Vincent Kompany's side let a one-goal lead slip in a 2-1 loss to West Ham United last weekend, while discontent around Bramall Lane grew as the Blades went down 3-1 to Bournemouth. And although both of those games went over their respective totals, I am struggling to see how either Burnley or Sheffield score goals without the opposition making a glaring error.
From the Sheffield United perspective, no team has created less expected goals than the Blades have entering Saturday’s fixture, and frankly, it’s not particularly close. The 0.79 xG per 90 that Sheffield is creating is .13 expected goals worse than Luton Town and is half as much as the 10th-placed team in the table. Whether it be Cameron Archer, Oliver McBurnie, or William Bosula in attack the reality is no one in the squad is creating more than .5xG per 90 minutes. It’s not some run of bad form or injury trouble that has Sheffield United anchored bottom of the table, this team is just not up to Premier League standard. Even against a dreadful Burnley side, I don’t expect the Blades to threaten the goal from open play, and that’s genuinely hard to say.
Meanwhile, the host Clarets will be hoping to end a streak of 7 consecutive losses at home to start the season, and while I do think they are deserved favorites, I’m not sure we’ll see an attacking onslaught from Vincent Kompany’s side. His insistence on playing out from the back and attempting to play through the lines just isn’t working with the players he has at his disposal in the Premier League the way it did against Championship sides last season. And while I expect Burnley to dominate possession and spend plenty of time in the Sheffield United final third, I have next to no faith they’ll be able to create much of anything. In games where Burnley has played bottom-half sides this season that have allowed them to control possession, the attack has managed to create 0.81xG vs Forrest, 0.92xG vs Luton, 0.69xG vs Brentford, and 0.90 xG vs Bournemouth.
So although Sheffield United has conceded 34 goals already this season, which remains the worst defensive record in the top flight, I am willing to get out my stick and LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO Under this total. Neither team has shown any capacity to be dangerous in attack, and I expect we see plenty of stale possession en route to an ugly 1-0 or 0-0 scoreline.
Under 2.5 -112 (play to -120)
Newcastle United vs Manchester United
3PM, Saturday, Dec. 2nd
I labored over this one more so than I tend to with a normal wager, and two questions kept coming to me as I crunched the numbers and examined the match up;
Is it possible that I am overvaluing Newcastle because I support the club?
Am I undervaluing Manchester United because I am foolheartedly chasing my lost money?
Ultimately, after much soul-searching and lab time, I’ve decided that the answer to both those questions is a resounding no. Newcastle United is amongst the best teams in the Premier League, and Manchester United owes their good run of form more to good fortune than good performance. Perhaps you can make the case that the talent and ability of individual members of this Manchester United team will allow them to outperform their underlying metrics, but otherwise, it’s impossible for me to look at how these two teams matchup and not come away feeling like my Magpies are being undervalued.
From a tactical perspective, Newcastle’s ability to press will cause Manchester United’s midfield serious problems when it comes to ball progression. As we saw this season when the two teams played in the EFL Cup, Newcastle employed their 4-5-1 mid-block and effectively eliminated the middle of the park as an option for United to play through. In doing so they were able to create 4 high turnovers and 2 goals in the first half. Eventually, the only solution the Red Devils could come up with was to play the ball long, thereby embracing the type of transitional game Newcastle thrives in.
Moreover, the fact that Ten Haag and Co. have been able to secure 15 points in their last 6 matches is truly lunacy when you examine the xG numbers. No team in the Premier League has secured more points than ManU has since October 1st, even though the expected points tally in that time for the Red Devils is 7.8. Managing to secure 15 points from the 7.8 expected is the epidemy of favorable variance, and expecting the regression monster to never come always proves foolish.
So with all that in mind, I’m going to take a little bit bigger of a swing than typical, by betting both Newcastle on the ML and on the spread, the latter being for a half unit. Manchester United won’t keep getting away with it, a trip up to feels like the place they get caught. St. James Park is a fortress, as the Geordies have posted a +1.48 expected goal differential since the start of last season when on Tyneside.
HOWAY THE LADS!
Newcastle ML -105 (play to -113)
Newcastle -1.5 +240 (.5Unit)
Nottingham Forest vs Everton
What was supposed to be a show of defiance and unity for Everton in the face of their 10-point deduction fizzled out into a demoralizing defeat last Sunday as Manchester United came away from Goodison Park with a 3-0 win. So now with their minds now focused on the likelihood of another relegation dogfight, the Toffees must begin to claw back the points they have lost, starting with Saturday’s trip to out-of-form Nottingham Forest. Perhaps on the surface feels like a game destined to be low-event, but in my estimation, I think we could very well see some goals from both sides.
To start, the Tricky Trees have surprisingly been one of the more consistent attacks when playing at home since being promoted at the start of last season. Since the start of last season when at home Nottingham has scored in 23 of 25 matches, and although Awoniyi is still injured this team should still have enough in attack to threaten an Everton defense that never looks quite settled. Moreover, when at the City Ground Forest matches has seen both teams scored in 64% of matches since they were promoted, including a run of 5 from 6 this season. In addition, the reported hot seat that Forest manager Steve Cooper currently sits atop should only increase the likelihood that his side looks to be more attacking because it would appear if results fail to start coming he may need a new job.
In the away dugout tasked with ensuring Cooper’s side doesn’t get a result is Sean Dyche’s Everton, who if it not for the point reduction would be sitting comfortably outside of the drop-zone. However the Premier League had other plans, and now for the 3rd consecutive season, Everton finds itself firmly entrenched in a relegation battle. With that said the doom and gloom surrounding the situation after last weekend’s defeat to Manchester United feels a tad bit overblown. If DLC can remain healthy it is hard for me to imagine this side will be relegated because in attack Everton is genuinely pretty good. From a non-penalty expected goals perspective, Everton sits 8th in the table ahead of sides like Newcastle and Arsenal, and although they are underperforming those numbers by a large margin from a finishing perspective, so long as chances continue to be created, eventually some will get in.
So with both sides showing the capacity to threaten the goal, and neither side having a defense that will make it particularly challenging to do so, the simple solution for me was to bet both teams to score. Because who doesn’t like cheering for goals right?
Both Teams To Score -123 (play to -130)
DaCoochie’s Quartet (1-2, 7.5 Unit)
Just like the rest of you, I too am a degenerate gambler who fantasizes about hitting big-time parlays. So with that in mind once or twice a week I’m going to give out a Parlay I perceive to have positive expected value in hopes of cashing some big swings and paying for some big things. I will track the record of the parlay separately in this section moving forward
Brentford ML x Liverpool ML x Aston Villa ML x Newcastle ML +621