Double PrimeTime Coochie
2 SGPs for 2 Monday Night Football Games
First and foremost, I want to extend my apology for failing to craft an SGP for last night’s Sunday Night Football game. My Minnesota Vikings may be the best team in the NFL, and after bending the Texans over our knee and spankin’em like little boys I couldn’t resist the urge to crush some adult beverages at the golf course with a few of my boys. Fortunately, Roger Goodell decided we’d have a pair of MNF games to sink our teeth into, which allows me to make it up to you! PrimeTimeCoochie has been an absolute goldmine through the first 2 and a half weeks, and although it would be hard to maintain this absurd level of winning, The Parlay Prince Who Was Promised (me) may be only capable of doing so. I chose to take a couple of big swings again today, the bankrolls in a place where we can afford to after all! Hopefully, the good times keep rolling baby!
YTD Record 3-4
500$ Starting BankrollCurrent Bankroll —- 1637.56$50$ Per Wager (half unit)5-1 or Better1 TD Prop Per ParlayMinimum of 3 Legs
Bills vs Jaguars
Bills ML
If you read this week’s New Betting Logos, then you know that I think that Buffalo is just a significantly underrated team in the market after an offseason of change. While the analytics people don’t love the idea of taking the ball out of Allen’s hands more by running the ball more, I think that it fits this roster. They have a big and powerful offensive line and a RB in James Cook who has the burst and vision to be an efficient runner. Punching teams in the mouth and looking to protect a defense that has some serious flaws is a winning strategy when you have an elite QB who doesn’t always need to be in the best situation in my opinion.
Particularly when you go up against middling teams like the Jaguars. I am almost out on Trevor Lawrence being a difference-maker to the extent that is necessary considering his price tag. Too often does he miss easy throws, and honestly I’m not convinced Doug Pederson is doing him any favors. This is just a team I do not trust to win close games, and against a Bills team I’ve not downgraded in the same way others have coming into the season, I am going to circle the wagons.
Brenton Strange ATD
The player I’ll be targeting in terms of an ATD for this game is Jaguars TE Brenton Strange. With Evan Engram missing the game, I think that the market is a little slow adjusting to Strange’s newfound role in this offense. After not receiving a target in Week 1 and only playing 36% of snaps when Engram played in Week 1, strange saw 6 targets in Week 2 and saw his snap count more than double.
Pair this with the fact that The Bills allowed seven combined catches to Jonnu Smith and Durham Smythe in Week 2 and were torched by Trey McBride in Week 1, I think the +450 price on a Strange TD is too wide and worth playing as a singular punt as well as part of SGPs.
Trevor Lawrence Over 32.5 Pass Attempts
Something I touched on a little bit after Week 1 when betting on the Bills vs the Dolphins is the style of defense the Bills are playing right now. Defensively Buffalo is playing what can be commonly known as “bend-don’t-break”. The Bills are taking away the big plays, executing a lot less press-man coverage between the ’20s, and in doing so are giving up a lot of underneath passing yardage. By doing this you make the opposition methodically and patiently march down the field, and while that may not be great for # of plays run, it is great when projecting pass-attempts over. The principle part of this parlay is that the Jags are playing from behind, and will see an uptick in an already pass-happy offense. If that comes to be, the Bills will be content to let Lawrence attempt short passes underneath that will naturally juice up his attempt totals.
Christian Kirk Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
Another guy I think should in theory see some improved production this evening in this Jaguars offense considering the game state I project to transpire is Christian Kirk. Kirk has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.8% since the start of last season, and his ability to get separation in the slot against this zone-heavy Bills defense will mean Lawrence will be looking in his direction. The Jaguars are the 5th most pass-centric offense in the league, and against a Bills defense that will give up plenty of short yardage throws, slot guys like Kirk and TEs like Strange are the types of players I think are worth targetting.
James Cook Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
As I mentioned a couple of times already when talking about the Bills —- this team’s identity is to run the ball. It’s been an effective strategy through 2 weeks, and I don’t see any reason why that would change in this matchup. The Bills are 5-point favorites and I think they’ll be playing with a lead, and even when they haven’t been leading this season like in Week 1 against the Cardinals, Cook still got 19 touches. The Jaguars haven’t exactly illustrated they are a stout defensive unit against the run either this season, so I’ll happily grab an over an Cook’s rushing attempts.
Bengals vs Commanders
Joe Burrow Under 33.5 Passing Attempts
I am going to get this second parlay started by taking out the LimboStick on Joey Ice’s passing attempts prop. As a 7.5-point favorite at home to the Commanders, on some level, it is safe to assume the Bengals might not need Burrow to throw the ball around the yard in the way he’s had to through 2 weeks where they’ve been trailing for large swaths of the game. Moreover, I think that it’s likely this game is going to be played at a pretty slow pace relative to the league average. The Commanders are a run-heavy offense and should be able to have some success on the ground against an injured and weak defensive line of the Bengals. Both of these factors paired with the lingering wrist injury that is (maybe) hindering Burrow’s passing game, I like the idea that Cincy keeps the pass-attempts down in a grind-it-out victory.
Jayden Daniels Under 198.5 Passing Yards
What’s clear through 2 weeks of Commander’s football is —- they aren’t overly confident in Daniels’ ability to throw the pill around the yard. A sub-60% pass rate isn’t something conducive to Daniels putting up big passing numbers, particularly when going against a Bengals secondary that is amongst the 5 best in the NFL
The Bengals' defensive line, particularly on the interior, is very banged up and feeling the offseason loss of DJ Reader. If the run game can get going for Washington, Daniels won’t need to be called on as often to make key plays.
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
Trying to take advantage of a little reverse correlation, one of the guys I do like to pick up some yardage in the Washington passing game is Brian Robison. As I mentioned with Daniels, the Bengals secondary is one of the better units in the NFL. That is to say, I do not expect many open receivers deep down the field for Daniels, which might mean Robinson becomes a favorite target on checkdowns.
I fully expect the Commanders to play from behind, which should in theory bump on the potential targets for Robinson, who is one the league’s best offensive players in the passing game. For those that don’t know, Brian Robinson is positioned as one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL among running backs, averaging an impressive 9.19 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season. Quitely is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL, and in a game state that should see the Commanders chasing I love targeting his Over receiving yards prop.
Mike Gesicki ATD
The final piece of the second MNF parlay will be Gesicki to catch a touchdown. I know that the return of Higgins will likely mean a reduction in targets for Gesicki who has seen 12 through 2 weeks, however, I think there is some merit to the questions about Burrow’s lingering wrist injury. Burrow’s ADOT per throw is the lowest it’s ever been in his career, and if there is some truth to the idea that Burrow’s arm strength or velocity isn’t the same, then it only makes sense the check-down option will be utilized more.
The Commanders’ secondary has been lit a blaze through 2 weeks (6 passing touchdowns allowed through 2 games), and while they don’t have the talent to make massive strides, you’d have to assume the coaching points all week were to mitigate the Bengals WRs.
