Puck Picks
YYD Record —— 108-154-2 (+2.2 Units)
Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Rangers
Betting against the New York Rangers is just a habit I cannot seem to break, but at least today I get to do it with a team I’ve adored betting on lately the Philadelphia Flyers. Early in the season the joke because if the Coyotes played on a day ending in “y” it meant I’d be betting on them, but the team who is currently filling that void for me is Philly.
Because as I’ve said a few times now, I don’t think there is a team in the NHL that is outperforming my pre-season expectations of them more than John Torterella’s Flyers. This was a team myself and much of the hockey world had pegged firmly in the lottery, yet here we are almost through 20 games, and low and behold this team remains a very good hockey team. The 5-on-5 play has been exceptional, as The Flyers are seventh in Expected Goals with a solid 54.6 xGF%. And as you might expect from a Tort’s team that is fully bought in, defensively they’ve been even better, playing to a fifth-best 2.33 xGA/60. This type of defensive rigidity and structure when played in front of a resurgent Carter Hart (.919 save percentage and a +0.6 Goals Saved Above Expected) provides a platform to compete every night, and until the likes of Tippet, Konechy, and Farabee begin to slow down, this offense has some horses to run behind.
Meanwhile, my opinion of the Rangers remains more or less unchanged frankly. How this team plays lends itself to being overvalued as a favorite, as their overreliance on elite goaltending and an above-average special teams unit profiles as something that is not always reliable. That being said, as my pocketbook has come to find out over the last 24 months, this team just has a way of consistently overperforming their underlying metrics. That being said, situationally I think going against the Rangers today makes a fair bit of sense. Yesterday was American Thanksgiving, and tomorrow the Blueshirts play the Bruins, which to me screams a potential sleepy spot this afternoon in Philly. It is human nature to look ahead towards the wagon that is Boston, especially when the team you are looking past has been so poor for the past few years. Pair this with a holiday and all that brings with it for people, and the Rangers would be well within their right to show up to the barn a little less motivated to be great.
The same won’t be true of the Flyers in my opinion. Torts has this team committed to the details, and there are no guys in that locker room who could possibly expect showing up to be enough to win with how they’ve performed over the past couple of seasons. So give me the home dogs to bite the Rangers here, I’m finally ready to be hurt again by this Rangers team.
Flyers ML +125 (play to +118)
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