Yesterday I told you we were going big game hunting and big-game hunting we went. Because there was no reason to fear a Lightning Storm and it was foolish to be concerned about an Avalanche. Not last night anyway. And as the images below show, the spoils of the trip were wonderful.
All joking aside, if you enjoy today’s free edition of the newsletter, please consider upgrading your subscription to the paid edition. This weekend we’ve got a delicious premier league slate on tap (44-34-1 +18.2Units YTD), and beyond that, over the next few weeks as I begin attacking the college basketball slate (17-10 +6.6 Units YTD) all of the picks and analysis will be housed there. So just click the button below and you can redeem a month’s free subscription, and let’s get started bankrupting the bookies.
Puck Picks
NHL YTD Record —— 85-115-2 (+7.9 Units)
Minnesota Wild v Buffalo Sabres
Hard to not envision a cascade of goals being scored in this matchup on Friday night between the Wild and the Sabres, because through the early part of the season, neither team has been particularly effective at keeping the puck out of their net.
The days of Minnesota playing a slow, low-event style of hockey seem to be long gone. Wild contests have averaged 7.73 goals this season as star netminder Filip Gustavsson has struggled and the team's defensive play has taken a significant step backward. Gustavsson has had an abysmal start to the campaign with -6.7 GSAx and a .871 save % in seven appearances. The Flower (Marc-Andre Fleury) hasn’t been much better himself, in seven appearances the future Hall of Famer has posted a .898 SV% on route to allowing 3 goals above expected. So while Minnesota's 3.27 xGA/60 ranks 13th in the league, none of that matters that much when you can’t get a save. In terms of offense though the Wild have been clinical in front of goal so far this season, and while they are likely due for some regression in terms of their shooting percentage, with Marco Rossi playing like a legitimate top-six forward and Matt Boldy back in the mix after an injury kept him out of the lineup for a few weeks, the Wild should remain an upper-middle-of-the-pack offense.
Meanwhile, in the home dressing room, the Sabres have one of the most exciting young offenses in hockey. Led by Tage Thompson the Sabres are scoring the 8th most goals per 60 so far through 13 games, and while at times the PowerPlay has struggled, it is hard to imagine that continues with the firepower on the ice. Rasmus Dahlin continues to put up video game numbers offensively from the back end, and with the reliability of Jeff Skinner and the continued improvement of guys like Peterka Mittelstadt, goals won’t be hard to come by very often for Buffalo. However that was the case last year as well, and what limited this team’s ceiling was the defensive side of the puck —- and frankly, there’s not been a lot of improvement there so far this season.
So far on the season the Sabres are 22nd in terms of expected goals against per 60, and are still having the ice-tilted against them too often as illustrated by their 48% Corsi. In addition, the hype surrounding goaltender Devon Levi might have been a little premature. The young goalie has struggled with a .885 save percentage and a 3.41 goals-against average on 148 shots en route to posting an ugly -2.8 goals saved above average.
So with neither team having reliable goaltending and with both showing above-average attacking talent, this one has over written all over it. So what better way to start the weekend than cheering for goals in this matchup in Buffalo?
WE WANT ANOTHER. JUST LIKE THE OTHER ONE. WE. WANT. MORE.
Over 6.5 -120 (play to -127)
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils
Despite winning on our bet on Wednesday evening when we backed the Panthers to beat the Capitals, it didn’t feel as if I was on the right side in that one. For the majority of the game, it was Washington who was carrying the play, and it would appear after looking like they might be amongst the worst teams in the league that this Washington group ain’t dead yet.
Perhaps the old legs in this line-up just needed time to find their groove, because over the past 5 games Washington has improved their game immensely to the point where the overall underlying numbers look rather respectable. Before tonight’s game, the Capitals find themselves ranked 12th in terms of Corsi, 18th in terms of expected goals share, and 11th in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. The structure and system new coach Spencer Carbery has implanted seems to be working reasonably well defensively, and while the offense has struggled, once the shooting % normalizes this team should be able to score enough goals to keep them in most games. Particularly because the pairing of Charlie Lindgren and Darcy Kuemper provides them with solid netminding most nights.
Now on the otherside of the ice for this one is a Devils team I am having a hard time understanding backing at this number. The injuries to both Heirscher and Hughes mean the offensive upside of this team is greatly diminished, which is a big-time problem considering how poor the goaltending’s been. Both Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek have posted a save % below .900 through the early part of the season, but in fairness to them, it’s not like the job has been easy. The Devils are currently allowing the third most expected goals per-60 in all situations. Very hard to outscore that type of poor defensive play and mediocre goaltending.
So with that in mind, I’m going to take my chances with a Capitals team whose process looks pretty damn good right now, and hope that the shooting % begins to normalize this evening. Hell, if Kuznetsov would show up to the rink with a purpose tonight that’d be nice too, but I won’t be holding my breath on that one.
Capitals +167 (play to +157)
Philadelphia Flyers v Anaheim Ducks
Two teams who have enjoyed surprising starts to the year meet this evening in Anaheim as the Ducks welcome in the Flyers for a late-night Friday tilt for us East Coasters, and while it’s Anaheim who has won 6 of 7, I think it is Philly who should be favored in this one.
And that’s because despite picking up 14 points through 12 games, the Anaheim Ducks haven’t been that impressive from an underlying metrics perspective. On the season Anaheim is 26th in terms of expected goals share, 27th in Corsi %, and has created the fewest expected goals at 5-on-5 of any team in the NHL this season. Now don’t get me wrong, there is a lot to be excited about if you are a Ducks fan. The offense is loaded with players who one day might be difference makers shift-to-shift, but for right now the reality of the Ducks game is that they are just an inconsistent group who too often find themselves hemmed in their zone for extended periods. However, the reason they are where they are in the standings right now is the goaltending. Both John Gibson and Lukas Dostal have been brilliant for the Ducks so far through the early part of the season, having each stopped more than 3 goals above expected already and combining to post a .920 save percentage. The issue is, I’m not so sure it is sustainable for either guy to maintain this level of play, and if the goaltending slips even a little this team might struggle to pick up points with how poor the offense has looked for long stretches.
Meanwhile, I won’t pretend the Flyers are a juggernaut in their own right either, but what I will say is that John Tortorella is one hell of a hockey coach. I’ve already done my mia-culpa about the hire so I’ll save you that, but my lord does he have this group playing some damn good hockey right now. Entering tonight’s game the Flyers are a staggering 5th in the NHL in terms of expected goals share, 10th in Corsi, and none of it seems to be smoke and mirrors. On a per-60 minutes basis, the Flyers are creating (2.7) 0.5 more expected goals than they are allowing (2.1), and this is thanks in large part to Torts and the structure the Flyers are playing with. All you have to do is watch one of their games and the eye test sees what the numbers tell —- Philly is limiting the opposition's high-danger chances, particularly on the rush, while manufacturing offense from below the goal line. Honestly had it not been for the injury to Carter Hart this group might be getting more shine, because what has really hurt the results to this point has been the goaltending. Samuel Ersson has allowed a gruesome 6.1 goals above expected in just 5 starts so far. The good news though —- it’s very likely to be Hart back in the net for the Flyers this evening.
If Hart can provide just average goaltending for Philly we might see them go on an impressive run over the next few weeks, and I’ll be trying to get ahead of the market by backing them as slight road underdogs in Anaheim this evening.
Flyers +108 (play to -107)
Player Props
Tyson Foerster Over 0.5 Goals +360 1/2
It’ll be new linemates for Foerster this evening as Torts has chosen to move the 21-year-old Aliston Ontario native to the Flyers’ #1 line for tonight’s game against the Ducks, and with the way the kid’s been playing, who could blame him. Despite not scoring a goal so far this season, Foerster has been one of the Flyers’ most dangerous skaters on a nightly basis, creating more than 1 expected goal per 60 minutes. There is a pretty compelling case to be made the kid is unlucky to not have scored already this season, like look at his heat map below. All of his chances are coming from inside the proverbial house, and he’s getting plenty of them, goalies are just rising to the occasion. So with the regression I spoke about above coming for the Ducks defensively, and with an increase in ice-time projected, I’m more than happy to sprinkle a half-unit on Foerster opening his account this evening in California
Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 SOGs -110 (play to -118)
The Association
Player Prop YTD Record —— 32-19-1 (+14.8 Units)