Through the first week of the newsletter, subscribers have been treated to a delightful +8.84 Units of winnings throughout 93 picks (42-50-1), good for an ROI of about 11%. Just for comparison’s sake, the best 50-hedge funds in the world over the last 24 months have brought their clients a 15% ROI. So while the Finance Bro’s have bested me so far, they just can’t compete with my affordability. Because for only 5$ a month, you get access to picks and analysis from yours truly; a man in the arena every day searching and battling to help you on your way to making a little more money.
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Puck Picks
NHL YTD Record —— 75-106-1 (+1.6 Units)
Florida Panthers vs Washington Capitals
It’ll be the Capitals welcoming the Panthers to town for Wednesday’s TNT broadcast, and despite the Cats missing some key contributors throughout the early part of the season, I have been impressed with their process. Admittedly I had concerns about this group’s ability to turn it around so quickly after the Stanley Cup, espescially with the injury list having names like Ekblad and Montour on it, but entering tonight's game in DC Paul Maurice’s Panthers are showing no sign of fatigue.
There was no concern for this Panthers attack entering the season, because the Panthers' top six projects as one of the better units in the league, and that has been the case in the early going. Both the Barkov line and the Tchahuk are elite two-way units that limit the opposition's attack by spending the vast majority of their time in the offensive zone. In particular, the way Evan Rodrigues has fit in on the first line with Barkov and Reinhart has been incredibly impressive, as the trio has allowed only 1.96 xGA/60 and is often tasked with playing against the opposition’s best forward group.
Admittedly though the injuries to Ekblad and Montour felt like they would massively impact this group’s ability to keep the puck out of their own, but with both nearing return, I’ve been proven wrong. The weak blue line is well insulated by an offense that spends lots of time in the offensive zone, and so far this season the Panthers have the league’s third-best 2.80 xGA/60. Hell, even Sergei Bobrovsky has followed up his absurd playoff run with a solid start to the year. The enigmatic Russian owns a +2.1 GSAx and a .904 save percentage in nine games this season and is doing enough night-to-night to give his team a chance to win.
Meanwhile, the end has come for this Capitals group that has accomplished so much together. Nik Backstrom just couldn’t get his wheels going after the hip surgery and has now stepped away from them. Beyond just Backstrom, none of Oshie, Kuznetsov, nor Ovechkin have looked overly dangerous by any means. Father time comes for everyone, even the Great 8 it would appear. What this has meant for the Capitals is that the offense has dried up entirely. Washington has generated only 1.90 goals per game so far this season, and the once potent powerplay is clicking a poultry 9.7% to start the year, good for second-worst in the league.
So while the underlying numbers for the Capitals aren’t awful, and neither is their 5-4-1 record through 10 games, the reality is they just no longer have the offensive talent to make the most of their chances. The same just can’t be said for the Panthers, and with that in mind I’ll be taking the road favorites to get it done in DC tonight.
Panthers ML -130 (play to -137)
Under 6.5 -105 (play to -112)
Los Angeles Kings vs Vegas Golden Knights
An extra spicy Pacific Division rivalry resumes the hostilities this evening in Sin City as the Los Angeles Kings look to put a bow on a perfect four-game road trip by handing the Golden Knights their first home loss of the season —— and folks I think the road-dog has some value in this one. Because while everyone (rightfully so) has been talking about the blistering hot start the defending champions have gotten off to, the LA Kings are just going about their business at an elite level.
Entering tonight’s game LA is currently sitting third in the Pacific Division with an impressive 7-2-2 record, and has not lost in regulation over their last 6 games. This hot start that McLellan’s group has gotten off to is thanks in large part to the continued commitment this team makes to playing tightly structured hockey. Just like McLellan’s time in San Jose, the Kings compete hard for every puck, and function as a 5-man unit each and every shift. This devotion to detail is why the Kings own a league-leading expected goals share of 57.67% at 5-on-5, and are giving up the third-fewest shots against at 27.4 a game.
But the brilliance of the Kings’ performances is that the rigid defensive structure is in no way limiting the attack. The offense has been firing on all cylinders in the early season, even without Viktor Arvidsson, LA ranks second in the NHL with an average of 4.27 goals per game. The balanced scoring that the Kings have is just so damn hard to stop, if one line doesn’t have it one night, the rest of the group is capable of picking them up. Five players are already into double digits in points, and nine have at least three goals.
The kind of game the Kings play is not so different from the one we see nightly from Vegas mind you. Both teams are structured in their own zone, and both teams have deep forward groups that contribute, and both teams love the physical play. From my perspective there is very little that separates the two, so with the oddsmakers giving Vegas an implied win probability of about 58%, that means for me value lies in the better-rested visitors. So long as the Kings haven’t spent their 3-nights off contracting the Vegas-Flu, I like the chances as a road underdog.
Kings ML +120 (play to +107)
Player Props:
NHL YTD Player Props ——- 33-49 (+10.5 Units)
Drake Batherson Over 0.5 Goals +300 1/2 Unit
First and foremost as you’ll get tired of me saying, increased opportunity correlates with increased production, and that is exactly what Batherson should see this evening as he’s been moved up to the Senators’ first line for tonight’s game against the Leafs. Skating alongside Norris and Tkachuk should really improve Matherson’s chances at finding twine this evening, and more importantly, even prior to the move Matherson had been producing. Despite only scoring twice so far this season, Matherson has created 3 expected goals and is doing so despite being only 5th in forward ice-time for the Senators. Moreover, anyone who has been watching knows Toronto looks like a Chinese fire drill in their own end right now. The Leafs have allowed the 4th most expected goals at 5-on-5 so far this year, and are 21st in the league in terms of shots against. The reality is Batherson will get a decent look or two this evening, and I’m betting (hoping) he manages to make good on at least one of ‘em.
Matthew Knies Over 0.5 Goals +370 1/2 Unit
My old man used to have a saying when it came to life —- why mess with success? And I very much agree with regards to backing “McNasty” Matty Knies to score again this evening, because man did the Leafs’ new-look first-line look dominant in its first game together. All three of Marner/Matthew/Knies notched 3 points in a 6-5 OT victory against Tampa and accounted for 59% of the expected goals when they were on the ice. One can look at Bunting’s numbers last year riding with Marner and Matthews and see the third man on this line is almost destined to score 20, even without considerable PP Time. Personally, I view the ceiling for Knies as being much higher than that of Bunting offensively, and in what should be another pond-hockey game, going back to the kid with the number being more or less the same just makes to much sense.
The Association
NBA Player Props YTD Record ——30-16 (+16.1 Units)