Puck Picks
YTD Record ——— 103-146-2 (+3.7 Units)
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
The Edmonton Oilers wrap up the Sunshine State leg of their four-game road trip on Monday night against the Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena, and much like how it went in Tampa Bay on Saturday afternoon(much to my chagrin), I think the Oilers are going to find themselves in the loss column this evening.
The concerns about a potential letdown after last season’s run to the Cup Final for the Panthers have been put to bed pretty convincingly by Paul Maurice’s group throughout the early part of the season. Entering tonight’s game the Cats rank 4th in expected goal share, 6th in Corsi%, and have allowed the 4th fewest expected goals in the NHL. Being able to put up those types of numbers without your Top 2 defensemen, both Eklblad and Montour missed the first 15 games, is just incredibly impressive, and now with the two stall-worths of this defense back and the rest of the lineup playing so well, it’s hard to imagine this team doesn’t make another deep run come the spring.
Meanwhile, the visiting Oilers lost for the first time since the swap behind the bench Saturday, and just as we’ve seen plenty of times this season already, the goaltending for Edmonton really let them down. Stuart Skinner let in 5 goals on 23 shots en route to a 6-4 loss to Tampa Bay, and frankly, it’s beginning to feel like until something material changes between the pipes, this Edmonton team is going to continue to struggle. One of the unfortunate realities of this game we call hockey is that if you can’t saves, outshooting and chancing your opposition doesn’t matter that much. So while “sharper” minds in the hockey world are inclined to think the fortunes will change for Edmonton sooner rather than later, I’ve gotten to the point where I am more than willing to bet as the devil’s advocate.
Point to process all you’d like, talk about regression to the mean in net as much as you want, but when these assumptions are being priced into the extent that they are now, where Edmonton is a pick’em away from home against a team whose underlying numbers are equally as impressive, and I can’t help but feel like we’ve passed the point where baking in this positive regression makes any sense.
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