Pitch Picks
Champions League YTD Record —— 16-11-1 (+11Units)
Lazio vs Feyenoord
How about We the Noord?! Entering tonight the Dutch side is leading their group through the first 3 games, and after years of it being Ajax from the Eredivisie punching above their weight class, this season it’s Arne Slot’s Feyenoord who have a very real chance at advancing into the knock-out stages. Not only have they managed to secure two victories (Lazio and Celtic), but arguably, were hard done by not getting a point or more from the first match against Athletico Madrid. The reality of this group has been that Feyenoord is carrying large stretches of play against all three opponents, and being incredibly dangerous in doing so.
And while the market has adjusted since the last two times these teams meant, I’m not convinced it’s remotely enough. Firstly, despite what the final xG numbers might say, the last meeting in Rotterdam wasn’t remotely close. Feyenoord blitzed their Italian hosts early and often, pressing them in the middle of the park in a way that Lazio’s Seria A fixture list simply didn’t prepare them for. Before half-time the scoreline read 2-Nil to the hosts, and while Lazio carried the play in the 2nd half, Feyenoord found a third and the game was done and dusted.
Moreover, in the time since the two teams last played Lazio has been very uninspiring with flat performances against both Bologna and Florentina. The reality is this Lazio team just isn’t very good, and more importantly, the Italians just don’t have the personnel to properly take advantage of Feyenoord’s aggressive pressing. The team is devoid of pace in the attacking areas, the build-up play is slow and methodical, and the reality is I just can’t imagine enough changing in the past four weeks for this result to end up any differently.
Feyenoord PK +100
Porto vs Royal Antwerp
Despite what the scoreline of the last meeting between these two teams just a few weeks ago might have you think, a 4-1 Porto win, I’m seeing a fair bit of value in getting the limbo stick out when it comes to this match between Portugal’s Porto and Belgium’s Royal Antwerp. Firstly, despite the 5 goals we saw last time out, the two teams managed only 2 xG between the pair of them. This slim attacking output took place even though an early goal from Antwerp meant a typically defensive Porto side was pressing and pushing for an equalizer and winners for the vast majority of the match. If Porto do go ahead early, I expect that the Portuguese side will sit in their mid-block and dare Antwerp to break through the lines. Although expecting it to be easy for Porto might be a tad bit presumptuous because although Antwerp has conceded 12 goals in 3 matches, in their domestic league the defense has been very resolute, allowing only 0.84 non-penalty xG per 90.
Of additional note is that I would think we see a change in tactics from Antwerp in possession. In the first meeting, much of Porto’s attacking opportunities came from the Belgian’s desire to play out from the back, and as the game wore on, Antwerp was much more direct. If that change continues I expect the game to be much less open and free-flowing, resulting in a cagey affair that hopefully stays under.
Under 2.5 Goals +125 (play to +113)
Celtic v Athletico Madrid
Once every year I trick myself into thinking one of these Scottish teams can pull a big upset throughout the group stage of the Champions League, and it just so happens that today is that day this season it would appear —- because I have a real hard time understanding why Athletico is such a sizeable favorite in this matchup with Celtic. Last time out the scoresheet read 2-2 when these teams met in Scotland, and while Athletico certainly dominated possession, despite scoring two goals they weren’t exactly creating chances at will. Outside of the Morata goal and the penalty, Madrid has just 1 chance that was graded to be worth 0.1 expected Goal. The reality is, even with Simeone shifting to a more progressive style of play, the attack remains a work in progress. So far this season Athletico is 7th in La Liga in terms of expected goals created, and if this past weekend’s performance was any hint to their current form, a loss to Las Palmas, perhaps Celtic is a rather live-dog.
Lastly, if you were to take the closing line of the last match these two teams played just two weeks ago and swapped the home-field advantage baked into the price, it’s hard to deny that Celtic at this price isn’t showing some value. On the road, Athletico closed -105 on the 3-way ML, and are now laying upwards of -350. No home-field advantage is worth 150 cents, and nothing has transpired in the meantime that would suggest the need for such a big adjustment.
So plug your nose, because this one might be stinky after 20 minutes when Madrid is leading 2-0, but just like truffles and shit —— it’s a lot harder to differentiate the difference between the two than you might think.
Celtic ML +900 1/2 Unit (play to +835)
Celtic +1.5 -109 (.5Unit) (play to -119)