With the final matches of the Champions League group stage ongoing this week I couldn’t help but break down my favorite betting angles for Tuesday’s set of matches. Now that doesn’t mean you’ll be without my NHL picks for tomorrow, however, they will just hit your inbox in time for Lunch as was the case before the changing of the release schedule. Hope this e-mail finds you well and excited to make some money, Santa ain’t going to take care of the presents himself.
Champions League Pitch Picks
YTD Record —— 23-24-2 (+8.8 Units)
Benfica vs RB Salzburg
The first of my four bets for tomorrow’s UCL slate comes from the Group C match between Benfica and RB Salzburg. As things currently stand Salzburg is the one that will be going through to the Europa stage as the Austrian club currently sits 3rd in the group, however, if Benfica can manage to win by 2 or more it is the Portuguese side that will continue their European campaign. And while I’m not so sure they will be able to get it done by multiple goals, I do feel like Benfica is the side to put your money on.
Firstly although it is true that in this competition the Portuguese side has struggled for long periods, domestically they are in a great run of form. In both their matches against Porto and Sporting Benfica has won and has done so rather comfortably from an xG perspective. Moreover, their underlying metrics across their domestic campaign have been very solid, but for whatever reason the defense has just not translated to Europe. Benfica has allowed 15 expected goals throughout 5 matches in the Champions League but in spite of that, they still represent the more talented side in my estimation.
And in fairness, much of that has to do with my opinion of Salzburg, which is to say I have not been impressed by the new look of this group. If you remove the match the Austrian side won against Benfica in which the Portuguese side was given a red card early in the 1st half this team has been battered in this competition. In none of the other four matches against Sociedad or Inter could Salzburg create 1xG, and conceded just under 9 expected goals themselves. Even more telling though is the fact that even domestically Salzburg has not looked like the team we’ve become accustomed to over the past couple of years. In the Austrian Bundesliga, they’ve managed only a 0.5 xG differential, which is a long way off the 1xG differential they’ve posted in each of the last three seasons.
Finally with Benfica in need of a multi-goal victory to see themselves advance I fully expect Salzburg to sit deep and invite Benfica to break them down, and honestly even once Benfica pulls ahead by one I don’t expect Salzburg to be over-aggressive going forward. Playing not to lose is seldom a good strategy though, and after Benfica at least showed a pulse in their last match against Inter I’m willing to stick my neck out and back the most puzzling side in this competition to get 3 points in the final match of the group stage.
Benfica ML +140 (+129)
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