After a few weeks away from the airways the Champions League returns to this week with tantalizing matchups all across Europe. So far this season we’ve enjoyed a fair bit of success wagering on the world’s premier club football competition, compiling a 20-18-1 (+10.3 Units) YTD Record. With any luck today and tomorrow will only add to those numbers, so if you’ve not done so already now is the time to purchase yourself a little early Christmas present in the form of a Monthly subscription to this very newsletter.
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Young Boys vs RedStar Belgrade
This one is as close to what one might describe as dumpster diving in the Champions League because I am not expecting many neutral fans to be watching this one between Young Boys and Redstar. Neither team has a chance to advance to the knock-out stage, and both are from countries most casual supporters couldn’t guess. That being said, from a betting perspective this match is probably my favorite of the week.
Because I cannot for the life of me understand why Young Boys are such wide favorites. Firstly, there is a pretty convincing argument that no team in Europe’s Top Leagues is overperforming their underlying metrics than Young Boys currently. The Swiss side has a +1.12 actual goal differential in the Swiss Super Ligue, while the expected goal differential is just +0.06. Now I won’t lie to you and tell you I watch a lot of Swiss Super League soccer, but when the disparity between actual results and expected results is that wide, regression is coming.
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