It wasn’t a pretty day from yours truly yesterday betting on the Champions League, no two ways about it really. A 1-4 W/L en route to losing 2 Units just won’t cut it, and although another man might winge about an incredibly questionable PK that was awarded to PSG in the 97th minute of the match, thereby ruining the +400 Newcastle ML ticket, I will do no such thing. Instead, I will pledge to be better moving forward, because excuses are like assholes —- everyone’s got one but no one wants to hear about them.
Pitch Picks —— Champions Edition
YTD Record —— 21-22-1 (+8.3 Units)
PSV Eindhoven vs Sevilla
The Champions League destinies of Sevilla and PSV Eindhoven could both be decided this week, as the two Group B rivals face off at Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan on Wednesday evening in Spain. The Spanish side Los Palanganas are still winless so far in the group stage, and have just two points next to their name, while their visiting PSV currently occupy the runners-up position as things stand.
Sevilla’s story has become a tale as old as time, as Europa League domination has not translated into Champions League mastery for Sevilla, who are potentially just 90 minutes away from exiting continental football entirely for the remainder of the 2023-24 campaign. Making matters worse the Spanish side is in terrible form at the moment, as they have been winless in La Liga since late September. It seems the crazy over-performing run they had in the Europa League last year is finally catching up with them because Diego Alonso has no answers at the moment.
The primary issue for Sevilla has been the defending, as the Spanish side is allowing 1.57 xG per 90 minutes in their domestic league. Moreover, in Spain, Sevilla plays a heavy possession style that they’ve so far struggled to replicate against PSV and Arsenal, and what’s become clear is that they really don’t have a plan when teams tilt the field against them. The lack of pace in attack makes making the most of transition opportunities challenging, as evidenced by the 1 shot performance against Arsenal. Beyond the defensive struggles, the offensive numbers haven't really been that impressive either. Sevilla are only averaging 1.13 npxG per 90 minutes in La Liga, which is very poor considering they are attempting the second-most shots and have completed the most crosses into the penalty area. Over the last few years, Sevilla has been the poster child for relying on crosses to be their entire offense and that has not changed, but the problem is if they can't get a chance off of crosses they are kind of stuck offensively. Sevilla's xG per shot right now is 0.07, which is second-lowest in Spain, and 116 of their 206 shots in La Liga have come from outside the box, which is the highest percentage in Spain. So, put quite simply, they are not creating high-quality chances at the moment.
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