Firstly I’d like to apologize for the lack of Puck Picks yesterday. I am still very much adjusting to my new work schedule, which was made even more challenging when my roof began to leak in the middle of the night on Tuesday. But with the home improvement issues now in the rearview mirror, and with the Champions League's group stage concluding this afternoon, I could not miss another second of that action. So hopefully with service disruption firmly in our rearview mirror, we can get back to fluffing our pockets in preparation for all that last-minute Christmas shopping.
Pitch Picks —— Champions Edition
YTD Record —- YTD Record —— 26-26-2 (+10.02 Units)
Athletico Madrid vs Lazio
A battle for top spot in Group E of the Champions League takes place at Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday night as Atletico Madrid play host to Lazio in their final group-stage fixture. Just one point separates these two teams, who have already qualified for the last 16, with Los Colchoneros at the summit sitting marginally ahead of their Italian counterparts in second place. Atletico would clinch the top spot in the group with a win or a draw, and with Lazio having a key Serie A clash this weekend against Inter Milan, you could see some rotation from the Italians in this difficult road spot against a rejuvenated Atletico defense.
Atletico Madrid's defense went through a really rough patch last season, but Simeone's side has returned to their usual place at the top of the xGA leaderboards in La Liga. They've conceded just 1.06 xGA per match in Spain this season and outside of one match at home against Feyenoord in the Champions League, Los Colchoneros have remained an elite goal and chance prevention unit. As has been the case for as long as Simeone has been at the helm for Altheti, the Spanish side is at their best when playing with a lead and because of the draw protection, they are essentially starting this match with a half-goal lead on the scoreboard. A perfect example of what I’m talking about played out when these two teams last played; Atletico went up 1-0 on Lazio on the road in the first leg in the 29th minute, and despite playing from behind for an hour, Lazio managed only one attempt with an xG rating above 0.05 until the last moment of the game when the Lazio’s goalie scored.
Moreover, the struggle Lazio had to create offense in their last match against Atletico is far from an outlier, as the Italian side has seen their offensive numbers regress to the mean pretty aggressively this season. For two consecutive seasons, Lazio ran as well as any club in Europe from a finishing perspective. The Biancocelesti consistently outperformed their underlying numbers and it helped get them into Europe despite league-average underlying numbers.
This season, Lazio is running much closer to their expected goal tally, and a lot of those struggles have to do with Ciro Immobile seemingly beginning to lose the battle with Father Time. Immobile scored 12 goals in 24.9 90s in Serie A last season and maintained a 0.42 NPxG production rate, both very respectable numbers indicative of an above-average striker. This year, however, Immobile has played 9.7 90s in the Italian top flight and he's produced just one non-penalty goal. His NPxG per 90 has plummeted to 0.17 per match in the same time span, and what’s clear is the Italian just can no longer get in the positions he used to offensively. His pace was never his strength, but now having lost a step it seems to be the case that his best days have come and gone.
So with Lazio's attack being only able to produce 1.22 xG per match in Italy this year, and with the host Los Colchoneros only needing a draw to advance in the 1 seed from the group I find it hard to believe we see a match that has much action. Diego Simeone will have his side set to defend and the reality is I don’t think Lazio has the attacking creativity or talent to break through a well-drilled low-block that has illustrated both in Spain and Europe they are among the elite defending sides in the competition. So go grab the bamboo stick, and let us LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO Under this total.
Under 2.5 -105 (play to -116)
1st Half Under 0.5 Goals +180 (0.5 Unit)
Newcastle United vs AC Milan
The second knockout spot in Group F of the Champions League — better known as the group of death — will be decided on Wednesday, as Newcastle host AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund host PSG. Dortmund have already clinched one of the two places in the knockout round, and PSG could join them in the round of 16 with a win in the concurrent match. However, if PSG were to drop points, the door is cracked open for both Newcastle and Milan to advance to the knockout round. My Magpies would advance with a win and a PSG draw or loss, while Milan move on with a win and a PSG loss to Dortmund. So with their European campaigns in the balance, I fully expect both Milan and Newcastle to play a more aggressive style of football with the necessity for 3 points at an all-time high for both sides.
And frankly, both offenses should be able to find some joy this afternoon, as neither defense has been remotely resolute of late. From the hosts’ perspective, the injury list has seen the once formidable defense of Eddie Howe’s Newcastle regress pretty aggressively. Except for their home match against Manchester United, Newcastle have conceded at least one expected goal in each of their seven matches since the injury crisis began at the club. Now that the Magpies are playing without goaltender Nick Pope to go along with the still-injured Sven Botman and Dan Burn the defending has dropped off a cliff. Moreover, In five matches in the Champions League this year, Newcastle have allowed 10.4 xGA in total. Only Red Star Belgrade, Young Boys, and Benfica have conceded more expected goals in the entire competition than Newcastle. Whatever the reason, the reality for the Magpies is the defending that ranked 2nd best in the Premier League last year has vanished, and until they can get some guys back from the infirmary, I find it hard to envision that changes.
Meanwhile, the visitors had solid defensive numbers in the past because they could play extremely passively, not press, and not commit many numbers forward. However, due to game script and the injury to Leao, Milan has had to be more aggressive in the Champions League so far this campaign and the mediocrity of the defense has gotten exposed. Milan has conceded at least 1.3 xGA in nine of their last 10 matches, and when they tried to be more aggressive out of possession press against PSG and Dortmund, the holes in transition defense and the lack of true midfield ball-winning were exposed. Both the Parisians and the Germans were able to create more than 1.35 non-penalty xG in those matches, and with the current group situation dictating a more front-foot Milan approach, I find it hard to believe Newcastle won’t find themselves in positions to score.
Lastly, it can’t be understated how important the return to health of both Leao and Callum Wilson is to these respective attacks. Leao is far and away AC Milan’s most dangerous offensive player, and with the Portuguese winger on the ball in space few defenders in the world are capable of keeping up. And while Wilson isn’t the same kind of game-breaker, what he provides for Newcastle are some much-needed fresh legs. Newcastle has more or less played the same 11 players for the full 90 minutes in each of the last 4 games, and Alexander Isaak just hasn’t looked the same threat because of the lack of rotation. Wilson’s pace and finishing should at the very least provide another option for Eddie Howe, and with St. James Park willing on the home side I expect we see the best from Newcastle in attack at the very least.
So with neither team showing much in the way of defending, and with the situation surrounding the game imploring both teams to attack if they are to survive, I am going to take a shot on a little SGP as I did yesterday with Napoli and Bragga. Hopefully, this time it’ll cash!