With 12 games on the ice and 4 on the hardwood this evening I figured why not expand the player prop portion of the daily newsletter out into its own e-mail! And while the daily sides and totals are for paid subscribers only, anytime I expand the newsletter in this way, it will also be sent to free subscribers!
So with that in mind, if by the end of the article, or by tomorrow morning, if you have found value in what you are reading, please do think about subscribing! It’ll cost you just the price of a cocktail, the first month is free, and any two consecutive losing months will result in a full refund for those months! Just click the button below to start your free trial, and let’s bankrupt the bastard bookies together!
The Association
Newsletter Record —— 2-3 (-1.13U)
NBA YTD Player Prop Record --- 18-9 (+10.27U)
Cade Cunningham Over 5.5 Assists -125 (play to -137)
When this Piston’s team has excelled early on this season, it has been in large part because of Cade Cunningham (31% usage rate). Now that shouldn’t shock anyone, the former 1st Overall Pick is easily the best player on the Pistons’ roster, but early on this season his ability to create for others has been key to success. He piled up 16 assists across Detroit’s two wins this season and added nine dimes in a narrow loss to the Miami Heat in the season opener, and in this matchup against a tired and struggling Blazers team, Cade should be able to take advantage of some poor rotations once he’s inside the teeth of the defense. My numbers project him for 6.57 assists, so getting him at this price is well worth paying to see if I’m right.
Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 Assists +155 (play to +129)
The reason I like this number on Jalen Suggs is two-fold; firstly Suggs is a guy I’ve always been high on, and so far through the early season he seems to be figuring out his role in this Magic squad. His minutes have been steady night-to-night, and of particular importance is that he’s seeing plenty of time as a primary playmaker with bench units. When I pair this with the fact tonight’s opponent in the Jazz has struggled to slow down drive-and-kick action —- allowing the league’s 5th most assists to guards on drives. Lastly, my projections make this number 2.47 assists, so getting +155 on it means I’ll be firing.
Walker Kessler Over 7.5 Rebounds -107 (play to -121)
Won't need to go far for this one last one, as we return to the Magic v Jazz game for a second-player prop, this time it’ll be a big game from Walker Kessler that my money will be backing. And the reason for that is that the Jazz will be playing a big frontcourt tonight in the Orlando Magic, which many would shy away from, but I just see that as more Kessler on the floor. More minutes equals more opportunities, and with Kessler averaging .309 rebounds per minute so far this season, an increased volume of minutes will mean an increased number of rebounding opportunities. Moreover, one of the things that has limited Kessler’s rebounding numbers is that he’s been asked to guard stretch bigs primarily through the early part of the season. That will almost certainly not be the case tonight, and with his impressive contested rebounding percentage, any time spent down-low will likely yield a higher-than-projected rebounding total. I make this number 8.43, so the over 7.5 rebounds will be a play all the way up to -121.
Jusuf Nurkic Over 9.5 Rebounds -111 (play to -123)
Sometimes in this gambling game, you just have to avoid getting too cute, and that is exactly what I will be doing in this one by backing Nurkic to pile up the rebounds against the Spurs tonight. Despite all the hype surrounding Wemby, this Spurs team just is not a very good rebounding team with himself and Zac Collins playing heavy minutes. Played this number on Halloween when the two teams played that barn-burner, and while I do have some concerns about the potential for a blow-out, I’m willing to roll the dice a little bit on this one. The Suns were up 20 20-points last time out and he still cleared it before the 4th quarter collapse.
The Ice
Newsletter Record ——- 0-3 (-1.5U)
NHL Player Prop Record —— 26-40 (+2.7Units)