Puck Picks
YTD Record ——- 125-173-3 (+7.5 Units)
Chicago Blackhawks vs Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets and Chicago Blackhawks get our day started with a matinee affair played in Manitoba, and there are a few reasons I think that the Jets take care of business with ease in front of the home fans this afternoon.
Chief among my reasons for betting on the Jets in this one is the opposition, because I don’t think the market is properly pricing just how bad it’s been for Chicago this season so far. The Sharks grabbed the headlines early on, but the reality is the play of the Blackhawks isn’t demonstrably better of late. The record ain’t pretty, and the Corey Perry story was ugly, but not enough is being made about how much of a struggle it’s been this season in their own zone. No other team in hockey is allowing more expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than Chicago is this season and things have gotten worse of late not better. Chicago has allowed teams to create 7 or more high-danger chances in 5 consecutive games, and has struggled in their own zone against sustained pressure ranking second to last in cycle chances conceded. The young forward group is still learning to play defense, and frankly, the backend just doesn’t have the horses to compete with the type of disciplined two-way teams that are littered across the Western Conference.
One such team is the Winnipeg Jets, who coming into training camp felt as likely to blow it up as they were to compete this season. However, after inking both Hellybuck and Scheiffle to new deals that’ll see both cornerstone pieces stay for the foreseeable future, it’s been all steam ahead for the Jets, who have quietly put together a very strong first quarter of the season. With 26 points through 22 games the Jets are firmly in the playoff picture in a crowded Western Conference and the primary reason for that is how good the defensive structure is for the Jets. Head coach Rick Bowness is a little more old-school than some guys in the league now, but this group connects with the man and it’s meant they’ve become a truly elite goal-prevention team. Oppositions have only managed to create 2.29 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength against the Jets this season, and that type of stinginess in front of superstar netminder Connor Hellybuck has proven quite hard to break down. Now at times, the offense can be a little underwhelming. The trade of Pierre Luc Dubois has made the forward group more defensively responsible and possession-dominant, but it has also meant at times the Jets have struggled to score.
That being said, the reason I’m comfortable backing the Jets to not only win but do so with margin is because so far this season they’ve taken care of bad teams while at home. In 4 of the 5 home games, the Jets have played against the bottom 8 teams in my power rankings the Jets have by 2+ two goals. Chicago ranks 31st in my power rankings, and with how bad the Blackhawks’ goal prevention has been this season I’m going. to forgo paying the juice and just lay the -1.5.
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 -104 (play to -112)
Buffalo Sabres vs Carolina Hurricanes
I’ll save the platitudes a little bit on this one and just cut right to the chase; in no world should a team with the goaltending at the level the Hurricanes currently have be a -250 favorite against a middle-of-the-pack NHL team like the Buffalo Sabres.
Through 17 starts between Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov, the Hurricanes have seen 11.7 more goals than expected enter their net. Both men have an SV% well under .900, and when that is the case it frankly doesn’t matter that much how many more shots on goal you have than the opponent, you are going to be on the losing end more often than the -250 implies. I relate it to a lesser extent to how I’m viewing the Oilers —— I’m not overly concerned about what the underlying numbers say over a long sample size, because if your goalies can’t stop a beachball right now I’m not buying it’ll just “get better” or regress to the mean. Goaltending is perhaps the least understood aspect of hockey from an analytics perspective, and until either Raanta or Kochetkov illustrate they can make the saves they are supposed to, I’m not sure how Carolina can be priced as such heavy favorites.
Buffalo hasn’t been great, but they’ve not been awful either. From an expected goals perspective, Buffalo has been middle of the pack at both ends of the ice, and although the injury to Tage Thompson is always going to be a major loss, this lineup still has some guys capable of making a difference. Both Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power have the size and skill to deal with the Hurricanes’ aggressive forecheck, and with the aforementioned problems in the net, the Buffalo forward group isn’t likely going to need something special to score.
At the end of the day, we bet numbers not teams, and with how bad the goaltending has been in Carolina they just aren’t deserving of being such a wide favorite. So get out the crossbow folks, because we are once again going big game hunting.
Buffalo Sabres ML +220 (play to +210)
Detroit Red Wings vs Montreal Canadiens
The upstart Red Wings with buzz in the air fresh off signing Patty Kane fly into the La Belle Province this evening for a Saturday night affair with the Canadiens, and from a betting perspective I will be targeting the total.
So far this season the host Habitans have struggled, as was the expectation for a club currently deep in the dungeons of a rebuild. That being said they are far from the worst team in the league, as Marty St. Louis is proving himself a good coach by just having this team competing as hard as they have every night. Considering the talent on hand the 22 points the Habs have collected through 23 games is admirable, but the reality of the Canadiens roster makeup suggests they are not likely to own much of the overall run of play, which has been the case recently. They played to a 45.4% expected goal rating in November and generated only 26.25 shots per 60 minutes. The greater focus of late for Montreal has often looked to be preventing defensive breakdowns and trying to find opportunistic scoring at the other end. And although it’s not come to be just yet, I think it’ll mean over the next month we see more games played to the Under from Montreal.
Meanwhile, the RedWings record of 12-7-3 offers them a healthy chance to snap a seven-season playoff drought. They continue to prove doubters such as myself wrong, as Alex Debrincat is showing himself to be a genuine difference-maker in his first season with the Wings. The American winger is pacing the team in both goals (12), and points (21), and his strong play has been one of several reasons that they have been an offensive powerhouse in the early going. Their 3.68 goals per game ranks fourth in the NHL, but expecting the goals to keep pilling up might be a little naive. In November they put up an xGF/60 of only 2.95, which was the sixth-lowest mark league-wide. That data doesn't tell the whole story, but it still makes a strong case that Detroit is going to regress offensively.
So with Detroit's offense seeming likely to come down to earth somewhat, and with both coaching staffs focused on goal suppression, I’m thinking we might see a game lacking goals. This figures to be a highly competitive game between divisional teams, both of whom should play relatively low-scoring hockey moving forward. The total of 6.5 looks high for this particular matchup, and I’m more than willing to pay to see if I’m right.
Under 6.5 -105 (play to -110)
Vancouver Canucks vs Calgary Flames
My old man always used to tell me “Don’t fix what’s not broken”, and with regards to playing Canucks Totals I plan to heed his words. Twice this week it’s worked, so why not make it a third?
If you’ve read the newsletter this week then you know how this speel goes, but humor me for those who might be here for the first time today —— the offensive output we saw to start the season from the Canucks was always going to be unsustainable. The shooting % has regressed to the mean, and the powerplay has cooled, which has meant the low-event style of hockey that Tocchet has this group playing at 5-on-5 is seeing the Vancouver scoring dry up. Only 2 times in the last 10 games have the Canucks scored more than 3 goals, and the 2.47 expected goals created per 60 minutes that Vancouver is creating at even strength is the 16th best in the league. This is a team that relies on their (elite) powerplay to carry the load offensively and does their best to play a structured defensive game in front of their all-world goalie. From my perspective that kind of team profile screams Unders, but for whatever reason the market seems to disagree.
Today marks the 3rd time in 5 days that Vancouver is playing another Western Conference opponent with a middling offense and a coach stressing defensive rigidity, yet the market remains steadfast in setting this total a flat(ish) 6.5 (-105). On Tuesday it was the Ducks and the game ended 3-1, on Thursday it was the Golden Knights, and the game ended 4-1, and tonight it’s the Flames. Who just like the Ducks and Golden Knights, are struggling a little to create offensively. Calgary enters tonight’s game ranked 23rd in terms of expected goals created, and the PowerPlay is 28th in the league. So although they continue to be a top-10 team in the league from a possession standpoint, they are just unable to convert opposition zone time to high-quality chances.
Honestly, I’m a little surprised that the market is slow-moving in adjusting these Vancouver totals. But that certainly isn’t a complaint, we’ve taken the bookmakers to the cleaners on them twice, so why not make it a third right?
Don’t mess with success —- bet Vancouver Unders till the market adjusts.
Under 6.5 -105 (play to -116)