Programming Note;
Full disclosure I went out for a couple of wobbly pops last evening at the local watering hole and have been slow-moving this morning because of it. So in order to get these late morning/early afternoon picks in your hands with ample time to take action I have cut the newsletter into two parts and made the first one available to all subscribers. The second edition will come out this afternoon and will be exclusive to paid subscribers. So if you’ve not yet upgraded your subscription, there is no time like the present to do so!
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Pitch Picks
EPL YTD Record —— 45-38-1 (+16.7 Units)
Manchester City v Chelsea
So far this season there’s a pretty strong case to be made that Pauchitinno’s Blues have played their best football against the strongest of competition, and tactically it makes sense. Chelsea’s issues against low blocks are well-documented, as the team is third in the league in box entries and yet ranks eighth in total shots. They just lack the close control talent and quality in attacking areas to navigate tight spaces and break down defenses that have numbers behind the ball. However, when playing as an underdog or against an opponent that wants to build up and try to play through them, Chelsea is quite the dangerous side.
This makes today's match against Pep’s Man City side an opportunity to back the Blues in my estimation. Since settling in on the midfield three of Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, and Conor Gallagher the Blues are really giving the opposition troubles with their counter-pressing. Chelsea are allowing the second-lowest build-up completion rate in the whole league — only Spurs are doing a better job of preventing opposition build-up. The key difference between Spurs and Chelsea overall defensively is that the Blues are not sacrificing defensive solidity for this press. Chelsea enters this afternoon’s match having conceded the second-fewest big-scoring chances and the fourth-fewest xG in the division.
Meanwhile on the other side of the Pitch are a Citizens team I feel like is being a little overrated in the market on the heels of beating up on inferior opponents. They dominated Manchester United in the derby, beat Bournemouth 6-1, pitched a shutout against Young Boys in the CL, and have created 13.5 xG in their last four matches across all competitions. So why get in front of that train you might ask?
Well frankly none of those groups are as talented as Chelsea, and most importantly none of those teams have Reese James. The all-world RB who has struggled with injuries over the last 12 months is fit now, and should really hamper how City has been so brilliant in attack of late. City has been able to take advantage of major athletic mismatches in the wide areas of the pitch thanks to the talents of Jeremy Doku —— Brighton, Bournemouth, and Young Boys just lacked the pace and strength to stop City from basically walking the ball into the box through Doku. I doubt very much it’ll look as easy today.
Lastly, City closed as a -165 road favorite at middling Manchester United two weeks ago, and there's a large gap between Chelsea and United at the moment. The Blues are playing like a fifth or sixth-placed team, while United are a mid-table side on in-season quality alone. In addition to that, it wasn't that long ago that City barely closed as a favorite at Arsenal. So with Chelsea trending upward and given how this matchup doesn't exploit Chelsea's weakness, the Blues feel undervalued to get at least a point at home in this one.
Chelsea +0.5 +105 (Play to +100)
The Association
NBA Player Props YTD Record ——- 36-22-1 (+15.2 Units)
Julius Randle Over 9.5 Rebounds -114 (Play to -121)
Me saying this might not make me any friends amongst Knicks fans, but some dudes just have to play themselves into shape, and I’m inclined to think that Julius is probably one of those guys. Because despite the slow start to the season, in the past week, Randle has really come on. The enigmatic forward collected 16 rebounds against the Spurs two games ago and snagged 10 rebounds more in his last game against the Clippers. His energy levels have been better in the last two and in this matchup against a Hornets team playing at the league’s 3rd fastest pace, there projects to be more opportunities than a typical Knicks game. Lastly, the Hornets frontcourt has struggled to rebound the basketball now for 12+ months. So while the much-maligned Randle ain’t winning any fan votes, he might just win us this bet.