Puck Picks
YTD Record —— 113-157-3 (+4.9 Units)
Minnesota Wild vs Detroit Red Wings
I am going to start today’s newsletter the same way we won our money on yesterday’s newsletter, by getting out the Limbo Stick and Going UNDER the total in this matinee game between the Wild and Red Wings. The reasoning being is that neither of these teams has proven themselves an elite offensive group, and when you look at the underlying numbers, you can make the case that both teams are well below average in terms of goal-creation through the first 1/4 of the season.
When we look at the Wild, it has been a rather disappointing season so far. Over the past four seasons, Minnesota has quietly been one of the NHL's most dominant regular season teams. They own a combined record of 169-90-30 over the past 48 months, however, this season things have gone a little sideways. The Wild enter this afternoon’s game with a 5-9-2 record, and much of their struggles have to do with how impotent the offense is. Minnesota currently ranks 20th in terms of expected goals created per 60 minutes (2.37), and no team has created fewer shots on goal than Minnesota has so far this year. The offseason loss of Matt Dumba and early season injury to Jared Spurgeon has drastically limited the production from the back end, and beyond that, Kirill Kaprizov has just not looked the same this season. After scoring at a better than a point-per-game pace in each of his first two seasons, the Russian has struggled so far this year and carries an ugly -8 plus-minus through 18 games. If Kirill the Thrill can’t get things going, it might be a long season for the Wild.
On the Detroit side of things, it’s been an encouraging start to the year for the Yzerplan. It's always fun seeing a lengthy rebuild start to pay off, especially when it comes to a hockey market that deserves more success than it has seen lately. But even despite the offseason acquisition of dynamic winger Alex DeBrincat, Detroit is finding success in large part because of their defensive game, and not their explosive offense. Entering today’s game Detroit is the 10th-best team in the NHL in terms of goal prevention, but if they are to compete in a very tight Atlantic Division they really need to find more goal creation. The 2.23 expected goals that Detroit is creating at 5-on-5 is the 5th worst mark in the league so far this season, and relying on special teams to score most of the goals tends to be something that is hard to maintain over a full 82 games.
So with neither team setting the world afire offensively, and both sporting above-average defensive metrics, the last question that needs to be asked about this total is can the goaltenders do their part? My inclination is yes they can, as it’ll be Alex Lyon in net for the Wings and so far this year he’s been solid in limited time. The more concerning netminder is Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson, who frankly has been shaky so far this season. Gustavsson’s numbers ain’t pretty, as the Swedish tender owns an ugly -6.2 GSAx and a .882 save % in 10 appearances. That being said, he played well on Friday night and was brilliant for the Wild while in Europe, so hopefully a turn in form has just begun.
Under 6.5 -115 (play to -124)
St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks
In the second of two matinee games on the NHL schedule today, the St. Louis Blues travel to Chicago for a game with the Blackhawks, and I think the road favorites take care of business with relative ease. The season was never going to be a pretty one for Chicago, they picked #1 in the draft last spring for a reason, but even the players brought in to help along Connor Bedard’s development are no longer in the lineup. Both Taylor Hall and Corey Perry were signed in the offseason to raise the floor of this Blackhawks team, and for one reason or another, both are no longer available. Although honestly, even when the pair had been playing the results weren’t pretty.
Through 18 games Chicago is now tied with San Jose for last place in the NHL in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 minutes, so although they’ve avoided the embarrassing 10-goal defeats, this team just isn’t any better than the one in San Jose. Prior to picking up a win on Friday against Toronto, Chicago had lost 5 in a row and had created only 41% of expected goals throughout that stretch. The reality is this lineup has 2 or 3 players you might say are above-average NHLers, and is amongst the youngest in the league. Anytime I can bet against teams like that fresh off a win, I will certainly do so.
Now I don’t imagine I’ll be betting on the Blues very often moving forward because they just aren’t a team that fills me with confidence. That being said, they still remain a team that is drastically better than Chicago. The advantage in net provided by Jordan Binnington relative to Chicago’s Peter Mrazek is substantial, and honestly after a slow start to the season the Blues have really started clicking offensively. Led by Robert Thomas’ eight goals and 20 points the Blues have begun to fill the net, and I don’t expect that to change tonight against a Blackhawks team that is really quite poor. The market is perhaps slow to realize the extent to which the underlying numbers say Chicago stinks, and till it adjusts, I will be betting against them.
Blues in Regulation +107 (play to +100)
Winnipeg Jets vs Nashville Predators
The second to last game of today’s NHL slate will be played between the Jets and Predators this evening in Nashville, and from my vantage point, Winnipeg is pretty clearly the right side at this price.
The reason for that is simple; after years of being a team that relies upon strong defensive play and elite goaltending, the Predators now just can’t stop leaking goals. This season, it ranks 21st in goals allowed per game and 30th on the penalty kill. The largest culprit of this poor defensive showing is Goaltender Juuse Saros. The typically brilliant Saros is in the midst of a poor run of form which has seen is save percentage curator from what we’ve seen from him in the past. On the season Saros owns a .892 save percentage and is in the bottom 10 for qualified starters in terms of expected goals saved about expected. He will turn things around at some point, but the reality is at the moment he just can’t be trusted. Over his past six starts, Saros is 1-4 with a .863 save percentage and 4.11 GAA, which gives this Predators offense a lot to do if they are going to pick up wins.
Meanwhile in the visitors’ dressing room for tonight’s game is a Jets team who is quietly the hottest in hockey. Winnipeg travels to Nashville having won 8 of 9, and is playing a complete team game that puts an emphasis on defense. The strategy is clearly working, as the Jets are allowing the 4th fewest high-danger chances in hockey and post an impressive 2.39 xGA/60. That type of sound-defensive hockey when played in front of a stalwart like Connor Hellybuck has proven again and again to be incredibly effective, and with the way Kyle Conor and Mark Scheiffle are playing right now, they’ve got just scoring to come out on top most nights.
So while the underlying metrics love the Predators’ process, I trust these eyes sometimes more than the numbers. Saros can’t be trusted, the Jets are flying high, and the Predators’ offense might win the shot battle but frequently struggles to convert on the chances they create. Give me the Jets on the ML, and let us FLY to the window with another winner.
Jets ML -115 (play to -126)