It’s been a promising start to the NFL season for yours truly, particularly with regards to the newsletter releases. Through 10 deep dives we’re sitting at a sparkling 9-4-1 record, and although it’s nice to get off to a hot start, it’s all about keeping the train rolling down the tracks. After Week 4 I will do a deeper dive into some of the teams I am upgrading/downgrading, but for now, I still remain pretty close to my pre-season priors on most of the teams in the NFL. Part of that is I don’t think I’ve necessarily gotten many drastically wrong, but most of it is a guard against overreacting. In the NFL the lights are so bright, and the coverage so widespread, that it’s easy to get lost in the sauce of what we’ve seen. At a certain point that will certainly have more value, however, for now, I don’t believe the sample size is large enough to make wide-sweeping assumptions that contrast my previously held beliefs —- other than with the Panthers. The Panthers are just a woeful football team, and perhaps the new laughing stock organization league-wide.
Overall YTD Record —- 30-35-4 (+5.2u)
Newsletter Releases —- 9-4-1 (4.13u)
Patriots vs Jets
Jets -6.5 -105
Look, I am going to level with you on this one —- I might have been wrong about the Patriots, and I might have been wrong about the Jets. I fully expected to see some major regression from the boys in Foxborough, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and as of yet, that’s just not been the case. The Patriots have been competitive in both games this season, and are finding success running the ball, with Jacoby Brissett extending drives with his mobility. That being said, I am unwilling to drastically upgrade this team despite what we’ve seen. The win against the Bengals will be a feather in the cap I’m sure for the next few weeks in terms of market rating, that being said, the Bengals were very much not at their best in Week 1 and very easily could have won the game despite that. At the same time, although they were able to hang tight with the Seahawks, are we sure Seattle is a good football team? I’m not so sure.
The one thing that’s changed about my pre-season perception is that the cultural DNA of doing the little things right hasn’t entirely left the Patriots just yet, but the limitations remain in terms of talent, especially on offense. This team has next to zero passing attack, and that is functional to a certain extent so long as you are playing in 1 possession games —- but the second the Patriots find themselves trailing by double digits, I really struggle to see how this team mounts a comeback as currently created. But can the Jets get out to that type of lead?
Most of the people who have watched the first two weeks of Jets football would probably be pessimistic about their chances of doing so. However, as I said in the season previews I thought there was a chance that this team would get out of the gates slowly. Aaron Rodgers didn’t play pre-season and is coming off a season-ending injury, and the Jets defensive front was/is in flux because of the continued hold-out of Riddick, and their coaching staff can leave much to be desired at times. That being said, this is an immensely talented football team, and I trust and think as the season goes on the Jets will improve. How quickly will that improvement bear fruit? I’m not sure, to be honest, and while the Jets’ lack of ability to stop the run is a concern in this matchup, the potential for one turnover or bad calls to completely derail New England’s game plan remains why I am so down on this football team. You’ve just got to be able to throw the ball sometimes in the NFL, and I have zero faith in the Patriots’ ability to do that.
Ultimately, as I spoke about in the opening, I’m not yet ready to drastically upgrade/downgrade many teams — and with my reason numbers making this game -7.5 in favor of the Jets, being able to grab under a touchdown is just not something I can afford to pass up. Perhaps I’m slow to adjust and will get burned because of it, but I just do not believe this Patriots team is any good. They will fizzle out quickly, and I’m expecting the shine to start to come off this Thursday in Jersey as Aaron Rodgers picks up a big primetime win and cover.
Giants vs Browns
Over 38.5 -105
Hold your nose for this one folks, because the thought of betting a Browns over might feel downright perverted when you see how they bullied bad offenses last season. Five times last year they held teams to to either their worst or 2nd worst EPA game on the season, and despite a loss to the Cowboys in Week 1, nothing seems to have changed from that point of view. This Browns defense is very much an elite unit in this league, and I expect the Giants to have some problems scoring — that being said, this Giants defense is abysmal.
Despite the Commanders managing to score only 21 points last week, they didn’t punt the ball a single time. The Commanders had 7 drives, they all gained at least 43 yards, all went past at least the Giants’ 27-yard line, and all ended in field goals. Washington never got into the end zone despite having 1st downs at the Giants 10, 6, 8, 11, 14, 24 and 13. They were 0-6 in the red zone, and apparently, this is the G-Men’s defensive strategy according to the broadcast. It’s a bold-strategy Cotton —- don’t think it’s going to work. Moreover, just like I said we would, the Browns aren’t as bad as they looked in Week 1 on offense. The O-Line is getting healthier, and while Watson will never reach the heights of his time in Houston, the guy can operate an offense, and that’s all teams will need to score against the Giants.
So while I expect the Giants to struggle on offense, I think the most likely game script will be one that has New York chasing the game through the air because the defense just cannot find a single stop. While that doesn’t bode well for their chances of winning the game, I do think it makes the likelihood we see this game have more points than 38.5 increase. My projections made this total 40.5, so I’ll happily play another Giants over and hope that they’ve not somehow found the ultimate secret to RedZone's defense.
Lions vs Cardinals
Lions -3 +100
In what represents a prototypical Buy-Low/Sell-High spot, I will do exactly that in this one —- because while the Lions have looked poor through 2 weeks and the Cardinals have looked much improved, I am not willing to believe that both things will remain true moving forward.
To start, while the Lions lost last week to Tampa at home, when you look beyond the scoreline and into the boxscore you begin to wonder how on earth that took place. The Lions outgained the Buccaneers by 247 yards and were +1.0 in net yards per play. In the game, they had 7 Redzone drives with 1st downs at the TB 10, 18, 20, 1, 20, 22, and 13 but scored just one touchdown. Two of those trips ended with zero points after 65+ yard drives, and a fair chunk of the reason why the offense struggled so mightily in the Redzone has to do with the play of Jared Goff. Goff threw 2 INTs, and while Ben Johnson made good on his word to attack the Bucaneers’ injured secondary by throwing the ball 55 times, I’m not sure that was the best course of action. The run game has looked effective through 2 weeks, and I think it likely we see the Lions lean on their ground attack a little bit more moving forward — particularly this week against a talent-short Cardinals defense that I still project to be amongst the worst in the NFL. By remaining more balanced in attack I think the Lions, even if St. Brown is to miss Sunday’s game, get back to putting up big-time points to go with their efficient offense.
In addition, by running the ball more the Lions' offense will lend a helping hand to a Lions defense that has shown significant signs of improvement from the unit that we saw last season. Aidan Hutchinson is a bonafide defensive player of the year candidate who is capable of breaking games by himself, and while the secondary allowed Godwin to go for 100+ yards, this is a young group I still think has room to improve. Through 2 weeks the Lions are 13th in terms of opponent yards per play, and although the Cardinals’ offense has looked explosive with Kyler Murray having perhaps his best performance as a pro last week, I’m not quite there in anointing them among the best in the NFL. The offensive line is a major concern, and just because he lit up a decimated Rams team, doesn’t mean I think it’s something we’ll see week in and week out.
Entering this season my power ratings had this game as Lions -6, and even when I bake in the fact that St. Brown might miss as well as a slight upgrade to the Cardinals through 2 weeks, my numbers make this Lions -4.5. I would have loved to been able to get the Lions under a fieldgoal, and perhaps that number pops later in the week when St. Brown is confirmed to miss, however, I don’t think I’m going to be alone in betting the Lions. This is a team many in the market viewed as potential SB contenders, and I would be a little surprised if this didn’t close Lions -3.5. So with that in mind, Roar Lions Roar baby.
Denver vs Tampa Bay
Bucaneers -6.5 -115
Entering the season I was about as low as anyone was on the Broncos chances, and so far I think that’s come to bear. Bo Nix is just not a good quarterback by any stretch of the imagination, and as much as people love to talk about Peyton being a brilliant offensive mind, I struggle to see how he turns this offensive around in any meaningful way. The offensive line has been poor, the run game has been non-existent, and while some may point to the quality of competition being quite formidable as a reason behind the Broncos’ offensive struggles, I think ultimately it’s not likely to improve so long as Nix is taking snaps under center.
But if the issues were just with the offense perhaps you could make a case for the Broncos, but the defense just isn’t any good either. As I spoke about in the offseason previews, the Broncos’ defensive metrics were inflated by unsustainable turnover creation and a string of games played against awful QBs. Those turnovers have dried up through the first two weeks of the season, and even despite not playing against offenses, the Broncos have lost and failed to cover in both games. So why would things improve going on the road to Tampa this week?
I don’t think it does. The Bucaneers have looked a heck of a lot better than I thought they would through the first two weeks, that being said, I didn’t have to upgrade the Bucaneers at all to get to this number. The Broncos are just that bad, and while the injuries are pilling up a little bit on the defensive side of the ball for Tampa Bay, I have next to zero faith that Denver will be able to make the most of it. Nix isn’t a starting QB in the NFL, I said it on draft night, and nothing I’ve seen through 2 weeks changes my mind about that. Pair that with the fact that the Buccaneers offense seems at the very worst reliable, and I’ll happily lay the -6.5. If I die, I die.