The New Financial Logos 4.1
A Second Round of NFL Week 4 Bets
Last night’s MNF game between the Bills and Jaguars was a little bittersweet for yours truly and anyone who rode along with the PrimeTime Coochie SGPs. Although I couldn’t have made a more perfect argument for the Bills being the side, I was so right it meant the 23-1 SGP failed to cash because the Bills were ahead by so many points they no longer needed to play their starters in the 4th Quarter. It was the second time in as many days that something along those lines happened, and I must admit, I’d have very much enjoyed that money. However, such is the life of a gambler —- close but no cigar as the saying goes.
That said, the start of the season has been one I can be proud of and you should have profited handsomely from it. Between the PrimeTime SGPs and Newsletter Releases subscribers who were brave enough to ride with me into battle against the bookmakers have pocketed 20+ units, but the war is not done because we’ve won a few battles earlier in the campaign. The Germans won a lot of battles earlier on in a couple of wars a few times in the past century —- and we all know how that turned out in the end. So there will be no premature celebrating or gloating from me —- its nose to the grind stone baby.
NFL YTD Record —- 50-58-5 (+5.4u)
Newsletter YTD Record —- 18-10-1 (+7.79)
Jacksonville vs Houston
Houston -6 +102
I'm not sure what else to say about the Jaguars at this point, because each of the first 3 weeks of the season I have advised betting against Jacksonville —- and each time we’ve come away successful, so why change now right?
Where the blame should be placed on the disappointment of this Jaguars team is above my pay grade, but what’s been made clear through 3 weeks of the NFL season is that this is just not a very good collection of players and coaches. Trevor Lawrence has not improved since his first year under Pederson, and to that point, neither has the team as a whole. The offensive playcalling and scheme are incredibly bland and in no way are getting the best from the players on hand —- but honestly, Lawrence is not doing Pederson any favors with his play either. The timing is off between Lawrence and his receivers, and anecdotally, it feels like he’s holding on to the ball for too long in service of trying to make a big play. But more than anything, this offensive line is failing far too often. Jacksonville’s offensive tackles have had trouble pass-blocking through three weeks. Left tackle Cam Robinson’s 11.6% pressure rate allowed is the third-worst rate among all offensive linemen; right tackle Anton Harrison (9.6%) is 15th-worst. Expect that to go from bad to worse moving forward because Harrison suffered a knee injury in the Jaguars’ Week 3. He was replaced by Walker Little, who gave up two pressures on 18 pass-blocking snaps.
Things aren’t going to get easier in the near term for Jacksonville either, because although the Texans are fresh of an ass-whooping at the hands of the Vikings, they are still very much the creme of the crop in the AFC South and will look to drive a stake through the heart of the Jags season on Sunday —- and I’m inclined to believe that’s exactly what we’ll see transpire. The Texans’ pass rush is amongst the 10 best in the NFL, and although the offensive line is a serious concern, the Jags defensively are just not creating any havoc. Through 4 weeks the Jags EPA/Per Play is the 4th worst in the NFL, and while they have played a relatively tough schedule of opposition offenses, it’s not like this week’s matchup is significantly easier. CJ Stroud is one of the best QBs in football, and although the Texans’ offense can skew a little to run heavy on early downs, the weapons Stroud has at his disposal will make up for it more often than not.
So while Houston isn’t a team I’m thrilled to lay big numbers with moving forward, I am just out on this Jags team. From the head coach to the QB, to the defense, this is a team that in no way inspires trust. Are they better than they’ve shown through 3 weeks? Probably, but I do not see a road game against the Texans who are fresh off a hiding as an ideal bounce-back spot. The Texans will have a rest advantage, and a travel advantage, expecting Pederson to finally get the most out of his team with rumors swirling about his departure seems foolish. Give me the Texans at anything less than a touchdown —- that’s a broken team down in Jacksonville.
Bills vs Ravens
Bills +2.5 -115
Coming into the season I had the Ravens as 1-point better than the Bills in my power ratings, and through 3 weeks I’m not sure how anyone could come away thinking the Bills are better than we thought —- while the Ravens are perhaps a little worse. Josh Allen and the Bills have dismantled a pair of consensus fringe player contenders in consecutive weeks as if they were FCS teams, and an offense I was told would be worse all offseason long looks like perhaps the best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 1-2, and although I’m aware that there’s an argument they’ve been unlucky to lose twice already this season, I don’t think everything is rainbows and lollipops for Baltimore.
From an offensive perspective, Lamar Jackson’s brilliance is masking some major flaws along the offensive line and with the skill position players, and at a certain point that’s going to rear its ugly head. This might not be a popular opinion, but your starting QB having 35 carries through 3 games isn’t a long-term recipe for success, and as good as Jackson is avoiding hits, that kind of wear and tear adds up and manifests in all kinds of negative ways. That said, my bigger concern with the Ravens’ Super Bowl prospects has to do with the regression of the defense. After being far and away the best defense last season in terms of EPA/Per Play, the Ravens now find themselves in the bottom half of the league. The departure of DC Mike McDonald is playing a bigger role than perhaps some expected, and Zac Moss’s unit is struggling to limit explosive plays. The Ravens have given up explosive plays (15 or more yards) on 17.7% of snaps (31st) and ranked 26th in team coverage grade, according to PFF.
Having a problem giving up big plays is not the kind of problem you want to have going against this Bills offense, who enter Week 4 with the league’s best offense. The Bills are 1st in EPA/Per Play as well as first in success rate and have done so by adopting a more rush-centric approach. Now while I acknowledge the Bills have spent very little time trailing, what’s clear is the 2024 Bills team ethos is to bully their opposition on offense. James Cook has been incredibly efficient behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Josh Allen’s ability to extend plays off the play-action-off has been devastating to defenses through 3 weeks. The losses of Gabe Davis and Stephon Diggs haven’t seen a slip in production like some have feared, and while it is early, there’s going to be an argument the offense is better this season than it’s been any of the last couple.
Ultimately I am a believer in the Buffalo Bills —- as illustrated by my betting on them in each of the first 3 weeks, and I just do not see a reason to get off the wagon right now. The Ravens are a good football team with an elite QB, it’s not going to be as easy as it’s been the past two weeks, but as of right now, I can’t help but feel like the Bills are the more complete team. Say it with me now…
NOBODY CIRCLES THE WAGONS, LIKE THE BUFFALO BILLS.
Saints vs Falcons
Falcons -1.5 -105
In a week-four battle of NFC South contenders the Saints travel to Atlanta to square off with Kirk Cousins and the Dirty Birds —- and I’ve found it quite interesting how the two of these teams have been viewed through 3 weeks. On the Saints side of things, after Week 2 there were earnest conversations about this being the best offense in the NFL. One week later, I think we can all agree those were foolish and premature. The introduction of pre-snap motion by Kubiak certainly improved this team, but the warts that had me down relative to the market in the pre-season are still very much there. Derek Carr isn’t an elite QB, he’s an above-average QB relative to the play we’ve seen from others this season, but he remains a limited passer who too often is content checking it down at the first sight of pressure. Through the first two weeks, the Saints’ offense was able to scheme in a way that protected the weakness on the O-Line for the first two weeks, but as the Eagles showed in Week 3, there are still problems. Problems I presume will be further exacerbated by the injury to Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy who will miss the next 6-8 weeks with a groin injury.
Meanwhile, the sky was falling for the Falcons after a Week 1 loss to the Steelers, but in hindsight that loss doesn’t carry the same level of concern. The Steelers are 3-0, and their defensive front has wrecked every game they’ve played. To that point, I’m not sure there's a team in the league that’s played a tougher schedule through 3 weeks than Atlanta has —- and I think the market is failing to properly take account of that personally. Kirk Cousins was always going to improve as the season went on fresh off an Achilles injury, and while they lost to the Chiefs on Sunday night, I struggle to see how you leave that game thinking worse of the Falcons. Drake London and Kyle Pitts seem to be on the verge of taking the step we’ve all hoped to see from them, and anytime a defense can hold Mahomes and the Chiefs to 22 points it’s on some level impressive.
So while there are likely to be many gamblers who feel what they’ve seen from both teams through 3 weeks warrants the Saints being a better team on a neutral field like this line implies, I’m inclined to maintain the feeling I had before Week 1. From my perspective, the Falcons are the best team in the NFC South, and we’ve although the Saints have impressed, it’s not so much that I’m willing to move off that idea just yet. The difference in the strength of the schedule has unfairly skewed people’s opinions of both teams because even after significantly upgrading the Saints my power ratings make the Falcons slight favorites on a neutral field. So with the dirty birds playing at home, I’ll happily lay -1.5 up to -120.