Yesterday was a third-period Islanders collapse away from a total sweep, but it’s hard to complain too much when you go 3-1-2 with all 3 winners being (+) money. And how about those Philly Flyers?! The Big-Game Hunter himself continues to add hides to the mantle! Last week it was the Lightning and Avalanche that were comfortably dealt with, and yesterday the wind of the Hurricane was bottled and put into storage.
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Puck Picks
YTD Record —— 98-137-2 (+4.9 Units)
Detroit RedWings vs Ottawa Senators
The first of 4 Global Series games the NHL will be playing this season gets underway in Stockholm Sweeden this afternoon with Sens and Redwings meeting in an Atlantic division battle. Both teams are very much in desperate need of points if they are to take the step forward that both fanbases are hoping for this season, and rather than pick between two teams I have power-rated pretty similarly, I’m going to instead look to target this total by grabbing my limbo stick and going Under.
Although it has been the case that through the 12 Global Series Games played overseas since 2017 teams have been more likely to go Over (6-4-2), my years of watching international hockey lead me to believe we will see fewer goals, not more, the more these games are played. The reason for this has a lot to do with the dimensions of the ice surface because while Barns in North America are typically 85 feet wide by 200 feet long, in Europe the measurements are something closer to 95 feet wide by 198 long. Typically what these 10 extra feet of width have meant when NHL players partake in international tournaments is that defenses are provided more time and space in their own D-Zone, meaning fewer turnovers and a less effective forecheck. The same can be said about extra space for skaters in the offensive zone, however, without defensive zone turnovers you’d be surprised how few goals are scored.
In addition to the larger ice making me think there is some value to be had on the Under, both of these teams are due for major offensive regression. Firstly, despite the RedWings offense being fourth in the league in goals scored per game, the underlying metrics indicate the attack has perhaps been fortunate to score so many. Before heading over to Sweden, the Wings ranked 25th in terms of expected goals created per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Oddly enough it is a similar situation offensively for the Sens, who despite ranking 3rd in the league in per-game scoring, flew into Stockholm as the 29th-best attack in terms of xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Lastly, despite the names of the goalies between the pipes this afternoon not exactly filling you with confidence, Reimer and Korpisalo, both journeymen veterans have been remarkably solid so far this season. Reimer has been brilliant for the Wings in 5 starts, posting .933 SV%, a 1.80 GAA, and saving .29 goals above expected per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. In the other net, just like Reimer, Korpisalo's metrics are also strong as he's saved .263 goals above expected per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 en route to posting a .907 SV% and a 3.10 GAA in 10 appearances for the Senators.
So with offenses in line for regression, goalies in net who are playing well, and a change in ice surface size all pointing towards the under —— let us LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO Under the total!
Under 6.5 +120 (play to +111)
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