With 14 games NHL games scheduled for this evening, I thought why not open up today’s Side/Totals newsletter release to subscribers of all kinds. If you are interested in the NHL/NBA Player Props for this evening’s slate of games then just upgrade your subscription today. For only 5$ a month, you get access to more than 100 picks with long-form analysis from a proven winner to help you fluff those pockets before Christmas. Moreover, if over any 60-day stretch I have a negative ROI, I will refund your subscription.
If that ain’t the best deal in sports gambling I don’t know what it is! So drink one less beer at the bar this weekend, and subscribe today!
Puck Picks
YTD Record ——- 123-164-2 (+12.8 Units)
Florida Panthers vs Montreal Canadiens
The Florida Panthers are at the end of a three-game road trip and have lost three of their past four games, but a date with the lowly Canadiens on the second night of a traveling back-to-back is just what the doctor ordered for a team mired in a little mini-slump.
It was always going to be another season where the losses pile up for the Habitans faithful, such is the life of a team undergoing an extended rebuild. So while Montreal punched up a little bit to start the season, winning a few games more than oddsmakers though, of late this team just isn’t playing good hockey. Going into Wednesday's action, Montreal finds itself ranked in the bottom 5 in the league in most relevant categories. From an expected goals allowed per 60 minutes perspective, the group ranks 27th, in terms of expected goals created per 60 minutes the group ranks 27th, and when it comes to Corsi% they are 26th. Pair that type of poor underlying metrics with below-average goaltending and you have a recipe for a team who just isn’t going to find themselves on the right side of the scoresheet very often.
Meanwhile, despite a little skid over the past 7 days, the Panthers are still amongst the league’s elite. The defensive zone solidity that Paul Maurice has ingrained in this team is working, as they are currently allowing the 3rd fewest expected goals per 60 minutes in the NHL. Moreover, Sergei Bobrovsky, who is likely to face Montreal, has picked up where he left off last post-season after struggling for much of the regular season last year. The Russian goalie has posted a 10-6-1 record, a 2.49 GAA, and a .910 save percentage in 17 starts this year, and so long as Bob is locked in this team is just so hard to score against. Now for transparency's sake, the offense hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire for the Cardiac Cats. The Panthers currently rank 13th in the league from an expected goal-created standpoint and have struggled at times to convert their ice tilt into actual goals. However, against Cayden Primeau, a goaltender with a career .877 save percentage and just 25 games worth of NHL experience, I think the potential for a big-time get-right spot exists for this group.
So with that in mind, I’m going to forgo laying a -220 price on the Panthers, and instead swing for (+) money banger by grabbing the PL. The Habs are tired, not very good, and welcome in a Panthers team that I’m sure is eager to get back in the win column.
Panthers -1.5 +115 (play to +104)
Buffalo Sabres vs St. Louis Blues
Despite it not being the type of start that Buffalo fans were hoping for, especially considering Tage Thompson’s injury, the Sabres are a team that has still managed to keep itself afloat in the standings. Through 22 games so far Buffalo has amassed 22 points, and in this matchup against the Blues, I’m betting that they can add to that point tally.
Firstly, when you compare how these teams are playing from an underlying metrics standpoint it’s hard to come away thinking St. Louis is the superior team. The host Blues are 27th in the NHL from an expected goals % perspective, and outside of the Sharks, St. Louis has the league’s worst Corsi%. This team just isn’t carrying play or titling the ice whatsoever, and what has kept them afloat has been the strong performance in the net from Jordan Binnington. The enigmatic goaltender has posted a +5.2 goals saved above expected so far this season through 16 starts, but expecting him to maintain a 2.6 goals against average in front of the 4th worst defense is a lot to ask.
And if Binnington regresses even a little bit tonight, I think the St. Louis will find itself overmatched. The offense of the Sabres is better at both 5-on-5 and PowerPlay, and although it’s been the case that in the past Buffalo has struggled defensively, this season they find themselves very much middle of the pack from an underlying metrics standpoint. The issue from a goal-prevention standpoint for Buffalo has been the goaltending, as Devon Levi really has yet to find his footing. That being said, I just don’t foresee St. Louis carrying the play, and being able to grab the Sabres at (+) money tonight is just too much to pass on. The reality as I see it is St. Louis is playing in a weaker conference and posting worse underlying numbers. So give me the Sabres and let’s hope we can avoid getting too blue if we lose.
Sabres ML +110 (play to +100)
Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames
For the second time in less than a week, the Dallas Stars will take to the ice against the Calgary Flames, this time in their home barn with revenge on the mind. In the first meeting, the Flames had an uncharacteristic offensive outbreak, potting seven goals, 6 of which came at 5-on-5. On Thursday though the Flames are again tasked with breaking through the Stars’ defensive shell, and that is a task I’m wagering won't happen twice in one week.
The Stars remain one of the best defensive teams across the league, and through 20 games this season, Dallas has allowed the second-fewest high-danger opportunities en route to limiting oppositions to only 2.3 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That mark is good for the 8th-best in the NHL right now, and when you pair that type of stinginess with the brilliance of Jake Oettinger it’s no wonder teams are finding it hard to score against the Stars. Beyond just the strong defense, Dallas is always doing a superb job at creating offense of late and has recorded 10 or more high-danger chances in five of their past seven games. Predictably, this has yielded some robust scoring, as the Stars have totaled 27 tucks over that same seven-game sample. The depth in attack that this team has is just hard to deal with, and the high-end skill of guys like Roberson, Hintz, and Johnson is going to give the league problems for years to come.
Meanwhile, outside of that 7-goal explosion earlier this week against the Stars, Calgary remains a team that is going to struggle for offense. The Flames haven’t managed to out-chance an opponent from a high-danger perspective in any of their last 5 games, and outside of their win against Dallas, the Flames have managed a combined five goals at 5-on-5 in the four other games since Nov. 20. So although they’ve enjoyed some big wins and are seemingly ready to round a corner, I’m not sure they are quite ready to win 2 games in 7 days against of the league’s elite teams like the Stars. Don’t get me wrong, Calgary is doing a much better job defensively and the goaltending that killed them last year has improved drastically. That being said, Dallas is a couple of tiers above the Flames in my power rankings and isn’t being priced as such, so I’m going to happily lay the short ML price with Dallas. It isn’t going to be easy, but I think they are the better team and will find a way to come away with two points in front of the home crowd.
Stars ML -125 (play to --138)
Washington Capitals vs Anaheim Ducks
It’s been a season of high highs and low lows for the (not so mightily lately) Ducks of Anaheim, who enter tonight’s game with Washington as slight home underdogs. For the home fans, things were looking up not so long ago, and thoughts of a quicker rebuild were swirling after the Ducks rang off 6 wins in a row earlier this season, but Zegras and Co. have struggled lately, losing 7 consecutive games before tonight. However, I think the skid ends tonight.
Firstly, the Capitals come to Anaheim fresh off a grueling 2-1 victory over LA, and despite how impressive that win is in isolation, nothing about this Capitals team blows me away. The offense is below average for the most part; the Capitals rank 24th from an expected goals-created perspective, and they are losing the shot attempts battle most evenings (46.36 Corsi%). Perhaps most glaring though is the struggles of the Captails PowerPlay, which enters tonight’s game the league’s least efficient unit with the man advantage scoring only 5% of the time so far this year. The harsh reality for Capitals fans is that this aging core just isn’t carrying play or creating high-danger chances the way they used to, and instead, really just trying to grind teams down with structure and effort. Now don’t get me wrong, that style has been reasonably effective so far this season, but a lot of that has to do with the brilliance of netminder Charlie Lindgren, and he won’t be in the net this evening after backstopping the Capitals to a huge win last night.
Beyond just the skepticism around the Capitals being deserving of the road-favorite price tag, I still do think the Ducks matchup fairly well against Washington. The pace of this forward group should give a fatigued Capitals team already devoid of footspeed issues, and with Leo Carlson missing the last game I think it’s a safe bet to assume we see him in the lineup tonight. Moreover, when I look at just the raw 5-on-5 play, it’s hard to make the argument that the Capitals are better. The goaltending is certainly better for Washington, but Anaheim has created more expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than Washington has and has allowed fewer expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
So at the end of the day, we bet numbers, not teams, and I can’t help but feel like we are buying low on an Anaheim team that isn’t playing as poorly as the results might suggest over the past 2 weeks. The talent is there to score more goals than they have been, and catching a Capitals team fresh off a huge win in LA last night might just be the perfect platform for that skill and speed to shine from.
QUACK QUACK BABY DUCKS FLY TOGETHER
Ducks ML +107 (play to +100)
Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks
Last but not least we go back to a late-night under involving the Vancouver Canucks, because just like I spoke about on Tuesday, the offensive onslaught we saw from the Canucks earlier in the season has cooled aggressively. The shooting % has regressed to the mean, and the powerplay has cooled, which has meant the low-event style of hockey that Tocchet has this group playing at 5-on-5 is seeing the Vancouver scoring dry up. Only 2 times in the last 9 games have the Canucks scored more than 3 goals, and the 2.47 expected goals created per 60 minutes that Vancouver is creating at even strength is the 16th best in the league. The reality is, if the PowerPlay isn’t chipping in this team isn’t scoring all that much, and going against a Vegas PK which is the 7th best in hockey, it might be hard to rely on the Canucks to score their share in getting this one over.
Meanwhile, after starting the season seemingly determined to never lose, Vegas had tailed off a little bit over the past few weeks. The offense group remains deep and effective, but they aren’t creating the kind of high-danger chances necessary to be an elite offensive team. Entering tonight’s game the Vegas offense is creating the 12th most expected goals this season, and the powerplay is 13th, converting at a 20% clip. So although the offensive production isn’t awful, it’s also not something to write home about either.
Lastly, both teams have enjoyed superb goaltending so far this year. Whether it is Adin Hill or Logan Thompson in net for Vegas you can pretty much bank on solid netminding, as both goalies are in the top 10 from a goals saved above expected perspective. The same can be said for Vancouver so long as it’s Thatcher Demko between the pipes because so far this season Demko has been the best goalie in hockey. He has posted a .928 SV% through 16 games and has saved 13.4 goals above expected, which is 3 more than any other goalie this season. So just like we did on Tuesday, let’s fall asleep watching this low-event Canucks game and wake up tomorrow morning with a winner in our pocket.
Under 6.5 -115 (play to -124)
DaCoochie’s Quartet (1-1, +8.5 Unit)
Just like the rest of you, I too am a degenerate gambler who fantasizes about hitting big-time parlays. So with that in mind once or twice a week I’m going to give out a Parlay I perceive to have positive expected value in hopes of cashing some big swings and paying for some big things. I will track the record of the parlay separately in this section moving forward
Dallas Stars ML x Anaheim Ducks ML x Carolina Hurricanes ML x Forida Panthers ML +687