Puck Picks
YTD Record —— 129-179-3 (+5.4 Units)
New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators
The New York Rangers travel to Ottawa for a date with the Senators, and I’m thinking we see some lower-event hockey than the market might indicate take place in the Canadian capital.
For starters, it must be discussed how badly the Senators are struggling coming into this one. DJ Smite and friends are currently dead last in the Atlantic division, and although they’ve got 3+ games in hand on the rest of the division, I’m not so sure they’ll be making the most of those. The offense just isn’t creating the type of chances we thought they could come into the season as they are creating the 27th most expected goals per game in all situations. That number gets worse at even strength, where the Senators are 31st in the NHL when it comes to expected goals per 60 at even strength. That being said the offensive struggles are perhaps at least in part because the coaching staff has put a priority on the defensive side of the puck, and to a certain extent, it’s been successful. The goals-against numbers have been inflated a little by poor netminding, but at the very least DJ Smith has this group battling in their own zone and maintaining structure through the neutral zone. Over the past 30 days, Ottawa is 12th in the league in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes at even strength, and if the Senators can get the odd save this team should be playing more Unders than Overs.
The Rangers are also a team that based on the underlying numbers you’d expect to trend to playing more Unders. From a shot generation stand point, the 30 SOGs per game they are getting on the net is the 20th-best in the league, and their possession numbers remain lower than you’d expect of a cup contender (49.58 Corsi%). In addition to the general lack of game control that the Rangers play with their 5-on-5 offensive play is only the 16th best when it comes to expected goals per 60 minutes. What has and continues to make this team an elite regular season team though is the special teams. The even-strength play matters far less when you have both a top 10 PK and top 5 PP, particularly when it’s played in front of the elite goaltending New York is getting from both Igor and Jonathon Quick.
Lastly I think from a stylistic perspective both teams are very much willing to play this game at a slower tempo. Both teams don’t typically forecheck with the aggression we see other teams bring, and outside of Panarin and Stutzel much of both forward groups struggle with controlled zone entries. If we can avoid a parade to the penalty then I think this one should have no issue staying under. Expect plenty of dump and chases, lots of neutral zone battling, and a general lack of open space.
LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO BABY.
Under 6.5 -116 (play to -121)
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