Puck Picks
NHL YTD Record ——- 64-78-1 (+5.5Units)
Newsletter YTD Record —- 0-0-0
Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames
Last year the Flames were a team that very much underperformed the underlying numbers, and while the archaic coaching style of Daryl Sutter was the thing took eventually took the fall, very little has changed for the Flames faithful in terms of on-ice results through 9 games. If anything, things have gotten worse for the Flames to start the season —- because while last year one could at least point to the underlying numbers when the offense couldn’t score and the goaltending was below average, this year the underlying numbers can’t help the fanbase fool themselves into believing a turn around is imminent.
The unfortunate reality is, that this Calgary team is middle of the pack at best offensively, ranking 16th in expected goal share (48.3%), 14th in high-danger chances created, and 20th in expected goals created. So while the Corsi and on-ice shooting percentage numbers might suggest a team that is due for some positive regression, the reality of this offensive group is that they struggle to create high-danger chances, and don’t have any high-end shooters who can convert the mid-to-low danger opportunities. Pair that type of mediocrity with poor goaltending like the Flames do right now —— both Markstrom and Vladar have failed to produce a save % better than .901, and you have a team that is very much there to be had for a Stars team whose underlying numbers are just as impressive as their early season results.
Unlike some other teams sitting atop the Western Conference (looking at you Anaheim and Vancouver), Dallas rolls into Calgary with 11 points through 7 games, and while the sample size is small, the numbers are illustrative of a team that is carrying the play most nights. By rolling out 3 strong scoring lines in front of a solid defensive core and dynamite goaltending, the Stars have managed to create an eye-popping 56.3% of the expected goal share at 5-on-5. When you pair that with above-average special teams like the Stars have sported, you get a team that is very much a wagon —- and not being priced as one in my expectation.
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