If you missed Monday’s first look at Week 3, no reason to panic. You still have time to go back, mull over my arguments, and decide whether you want to ride along with me. I think so far I’ve given you enough reason to trust me, having gone 9-4-1 on the newsletter releases this NFL season, but sometimes even when you bring a horse to water them bastards don’t want to drink!
Packers vs Titans
Titans -1.5 -110
Perhaps not having the scar tissue of the last two brutal beats Titans betters underwent has me filled with enough confidence to bet this team, or maybe it’s a deep-seated hatred of the Packers that nudges me over the edge —- but I really like the Tenessee this week. For those of you who read my season previews may come as a shock, but I think I might have pretty drastically undervalued what exists around Levis in Nashville. The secondary that they put together over the offseason has been much more impressive than I thought it would be through 2 weeks, and perhaps most importantly, the loss of Mike Vrabel hasn’t meant a loss in toughness or compete level in the trenches. The reworked offensive line has opened up holes in the run game, and the defensive line is getting after the quarterback. The reality of the Titans season is, had it not been for 2 or 3 (redacted) decisions by Will Levis, then Tennessee might very well be 2-0.
Now the obvious counter-point to this line of thinking is —- what’s to stop Levis from doing it again? And while that is a fair perspective to have, there is not only a downside when betting on him. The guy can make plays and with the luxury of leaning on the running game against a Packers front 7 I think will be hard-pressed to stop the ground attack, I think he can score enough points to win this game. Calvin Ridley has looked good, Hopkins is working his way back to a full workload, and there is talent on this team. If Levis can just avoid the black swan-level event bad plays, they win this game going away.
A large part of that belief though comes from my questions around how effective the Packers offense will look this weekend. Despite picking up a win against the Colts, Malik Willis isn’t a good quarterback. LaFleur deserves credit for the game plan last week, but I think as much blame is owed to Indy and their coaching staff. Gus Bradley made no adjustments, the Colts were decimated by injuries, and yet outside of the first couple of drives the Packers’ offense did next to nothing. Moreover, if it is Jordan Love playing, you’ve got to wonder how effective he’ll be. That said, I would be surprised if he did, despite what popular reports are reading this early in the week.
The Titans may very well be a much better team than I had originally thought, and I’m going to jump in on them when everyone else who was leading the bandwagon is jumping off. Will Levis can’t possibly continue to make these kinds of errors, and when he stops doing so, this will be a hard football team to beat week in and week out.
Panthers vs Raiders
Panthers +5.5
If you haven’t heard the news, the Carolina Panthers have decided to bench Bryce Young entering this Week 3 matchup with the Raiders in favor of Andy Dalton, and I won’t exactly be breaking any news in saying I’m of the opinion Dalton represents a significant upgrade over Young. All one needs to do is take a look at how the market reacted to the news of Young’s benching to deduce it’s not exactly a “Hot Take” to think the Panthers are going to have a much better chance of competing in this game with Dalton under center, but even despite the spread moving almost a full 2-points on the news — I think there is still untapped value in betting Carolina.
Admittedly, a lot of that has to do with my lack of trust or belief in this Raiders team or coaching staff. Despite pulling a big upset last week against the Ravens, they were completely outplayed for 40 minutes of that game, and while Minshew was brilliant in leading the comeback in the 4th quarter, the problem is the Raiders are very much unwilling to let him cook so to speak. Antonia Pierce has been insistent to this point that running the ball will be their offensive identity, and despite the pieces being there for Minshew to succeed as a higher-volume passer, I don’t expect that to happen anytime soon. This means the continued heavy usage of a poor running back room, thereby drastically limiting the offensive efficiency. If you are choosing to hand the ball off to Zamir White rather than throw it to Bowers/Adams, you just aren’t using your roster properly, and relying on late-game comebacks isn’t conducive to covering bring spreads very often now, is it?
Moreover, while a lot of people aren’t likely to put much value in the notion that the Panthers team as a whole will get a lift from the change in QB, I do think there is some truth to it. These players are human beings, and they spent all offseason training and competing for the spot in this league, only for their former 1st overall QB who doesn’t give them the best chance to win stink it up. Psychologically that can’t be conducive to creating a sense of unity when one member of the team has a different set of rules —- and while it’s hard to put a numerical value on this type of handicap, I think it is valuable to think about. Ultimately though, more than anything I don’t trust this Raiders team to win by this margin against a competent NFL team —- and I’m willing to bet that with Andy Dalton under center the Panthers will be much closer to competent than we’ve seen through 2 weeks.
Jaguars vs Bills
Bills -5.5 +100
For the last addition to the Week 3 card, for the time being, we’ll be skipping ahead to one of the two Monday Night games and betting on the Bills to continue their hot start to the season as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars. For the people who have been paying attention, one team I am apparently lower on than the market is Jacksonville, and so far it’s hard to argue with my opinion. The Jags travel to Buffalo at 0-2 and are 0-2 ATS, and if you squint your eyes there is a decent football team assembled for Jacksonville. They have a supposedly high-ceiling QB, their coach is one that people regard highly, and elsewhere on the roster there are talented players —-yet it never seems to come to fruition. Why is that?
Well from my perspective it has to do with the overrating of both Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. When you pay the QB position as handsomely as Jacksonville is doing right now, the guy has to be a bonafide Top-10 QB who makes everyone around him better with his play —- and I’m just not seeing that on any level of consistency from Lawrence. After a middling performance against the Dolphins perhaps you could say the Jags were unlucky losers, he was just not very good against the Browns. Despite his EPA/play numbers looking respectable, he was incredibly inaccurate, finishing with the week’s worst completion percentage relative to expected. For all the talk of the arm talent, the touch, and the throwing with anticipation, Lawrence continues to disappoint and miss easy throws. Moreover, this is now year 3 for Pederson in Jacksonville, and we’ve yet to see a major step forward for this offense from the first year he was in charge. Far too much of the passing game is short and intermediate, and the creativity and aggressiveness that people fell in love with in Philly just haven’t been omnipresent for the Jags
Meanwhile, for much of the offseason people threw dirt on the body of the Bills. I heard the window had closed, that it was a rebuilding season, yet here the Bills are, sitting at 2-0. A lot of that has to do with the change in philosophy, and while the pocket protector crowd will scream till the cows come home that relying more on a run-heavy offense isn’t the optimal use of Josh Allen’s talent —- the reality of the game of football is that it is physical war. One that through two weeks the Bills are winning. The offensive line is opening up holes for James Cook, and when he’s been called upon to make plays Allen has done just that.
On the otherside of the ball, the Bills are going the way of much of the NFL in terms of defensive strategy. They are playing soft coverage between the ’20s, playing predominantly base coverage, and allowing the opposition to make completions underneath and pick up yardage with the run game. Putting the expectation on the opposition to methodically move the ball down the field without making a mistake —- and through 2 weeks it’s proven effective. On a league-wide basis offensive efficiency in the RZ has taken a big step backward, and while it isn’t a sexy approach, it’s proven an effective one for this defense.
So while others may point to the fact that in Week 1 the Cardinals were only 6-point road dogs aginst the Bills as a reason to back the Jaguars —- I thought that number was short then and think this one is now. The Bills aren’t yet being priced like I think they deserve to be, and until that changes or I see something that convinces me they arne’t one of the best teams in the NFL, I will be betting them. Nobody Circles the Wagons BABYYYY.