If you missed this morning’s Champions League picks and analysis fear not, you still have time to grab today’s winners as long as you are a premium subscriber. I’ve enjoyed a pretty solid run of success so far in the competition, going 20-18-1, and winning +10.3 Units in the process. One-dollar bettors would have won their money back twice over so far if they’d been tailing my action, and there is a pair of plays on today’s slate that I’m drooling over.
So subscribe today, and start the afternoon off with some winning wagers from the beautiful game.
Puck Picks
YTD Record ——- 117-162-2 (4.7 Units)
Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets
The Dallas Stars head to Manitoba to take on the Winnipeg Jets, and after a strong start to the season, the Stars have lost three of their past four games. That being said, don’t confuse this rough stretch for a lack of talent. Dallas has one of the more dynamic attacks in the NHL led by Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz who are among the hottest duos in the NHL, and anchored by veteran Joe Pavelski leads the team in scoring. Wyatt Johnson is also having a great start to his sophomore season as he enters tonight’s game as the team's fourth-leading scorer, and with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin being used as depth pieces rather than the focal points, it’s hard to find a flaw in the Star’s roster construction.
The Stars rank seventh in expected goals with a 53.89 xGF%, and defensively they’re tied for eighth with a 2.44 xGA/60. This type of strong team play at both ends of the ice when paired with Dallas’s exceptional special teams crew, and you have a recipe for Cup Contention, particularly when playing in front of a stud goalie like Jake Oettinger. The American’s numbers haven’t been as impressive as we’ve seen from him in the past, but he’s still undeniably one of the elite goalies in the NHL.
Speaking of elite goalies, the man between the pipes for Winnipeg has really picked it up of late. Connor Hellybuck had a rough start to the campaign, but of late he’s been sharper than a tac, posting a .945 SV% in his past four starts. That being said expecting that type of goaltending every night is a lot to ask, and the reality is the Jets are just a little worse than Dallas is across the board. The Jets rank 12th in expected goal share while the Stars are 8th, the goal prevention is marginally worse as the Jets and Stars rank 9th and 7th respectively. The most significant gap exists on special teams, as both the powerplay and penalty kill for Winnipeg have struggled. They only score on the power play 18% of the time, and the penalty kill is only preventing opponents from scoring at a 73% clip.
So although if you were to only look at the standings you might be fair in assuming these two teams are on even footing, but from a Power Rankings perspective I have the Stars a tier above the Jets right now. Dallas is just a tad deeper in attack, and although so far this season the Jets hold an edge in net, I’m more than happy to bet on Oettinger to return to form and snap his personal 3 game-losing skid on the road tonight in Manitoba.
Stars ML -110 (play to -119)
Seattle Kraken vs Chicago Blackhawks
Two teams that have struggled to start the season will be lacing up the skates this evening in Chicago as the Seattle Kraken travel to face the hometown Blackhawks —- and despite the recent history of both of these teams, I think that this one projects to be a low-event game.
The reason for that is pretty simple; neither offense has proved itself to be all that threatening. Entering tonight’s game the Kraken is creating only 2.29 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is good (or bad) for 27th in the NHL. What has kept the Kraken afloat so far this season though has been their continued defensive rigidity, as Seattle is amongst the best defensive teams in the NHL from both the expected goals allowed and shot attempts allowed standpoint. Seattle just strangles lesser teams at even strength, and in doing so against Chicago shouldn’t be too tough of a task.
Chicago’s offense is creating just 2.34 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 which is the 24th-worst mark in hockey. The losses of Perry and Hall aren’t going to help those numbers either, and the reality is outside of Connor Bedard this team lacks anyone capable of really driving play. The only concern for me with regard to this game staying under 6.5 is the goaltending of both teams can at times leave much to be desired. That said, I don’t project the Seattle goalies having much to do, and although neither Solderblom nor Mrazek have a track record of success, both goalies have looked solid so far this season. So let’s get out our limbo stick, and LIMBO LIMBO LIMBO Under this total of 6.5
Under 6.5 -115 (play to -124)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Arizona Coyotes
Fresh off scoring only 1 goal last evening in Colorado en route to helping us cash our Under, the Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Arizona for a date with the Coyotes at Mullet Arena, and I’m thinking it is about time we howl at the moon once more.
For starters, the Lightning are 1-10 in their last 11 games when playing on no rest and that number makes a lot of sense when you ponder why it might be. John Cooper’s team has had Cup aspirations for the better part of a decade now and has played a lot of hockey over the past few years. A second night of a back-to-back in November isn’t the time to empty the gas tank, and just as is the case tonight, the drop-off in performance from starting Andrei Vaselevsky to the backup is steep. Jonas Johasson’s play has dropped off considerably from his strong start, as the Swed now owns a SV% below .900 and has a -4.4 goals saved above expected through 17 games.
Beyond just the historical struggles that Tampa has had when playing on zero days rest the Lightning’s offense is in line for a little regression. Just as I mentioned yesterday prior to the Colorado game, Tampa ranks fourth in the league in goals scored per game but 15th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. The offense has run insanely hot from a finishing perspective and with heavy legs it’s hard to imagine we see the best offensive performance from Tampa tonight.
Now on the Arizona side of things, I’m not going to sit here and blow smoke up your ass, the reality is the Coyotes haven’t been good as of late. The underlying numbers that were so strong in the first 10 games of the season have tailed off, in part because of injury, and the goaltending remains a major issue. That being said the defensive structure and depth across the forward group still make this team one I think profiles as stronger than we’ve seen over the past 14 or so days, and considering Tampa’s recent struggles on the second night of back-to-backs, I can’t help by bet the Yotes.
Turns out that sometimes you just can’t teach an old dog new tricks, because, despite my best efforts, I just can’t quit betting on these damn desert dogs.
Coyotes ML +115 (Play to +103)
Anaheim Ducks vs Vancouver Canucks
In the last game of a loaded NHL Tuesday slate the Ducks of Anaheim fly north for a meeting with the Vancouver Canucks, and for the East-Coast readers, no one could blame you for falling asleep before this one ends.
After the hot start to the season for the young Ducks, things have really fallen apart of late, particularly with regard to the offense. Despite the youth and potential that exists within this forward group, they just have not found anyone capable of providing consistent scoring punch. Entering tonight’s game Anaheim is 25th from an expected goals created per 60 minutes standpoint, and over the past 2 weeks, things have been getting worse. Only twice in the last 7 games have the Ducks scored more than 2 goals, and the unfortunate reality is the young guns are experiencing some serious growing pains.
Meanwhile, after the strong start, the Canucks have tailed off considerably themselves. The shooting % has normalized, and the powerplay has cooled off a little bit, which has meant the low-event style of hockey they are playing at 5-on-5 is no longer setting the league on fire. But what it also means is that this team really profiles to me as one who is going to play more towards the under any time Dmeko is between the pipes, which he will be tonight.
So I’m not going to overthink this one too much —— when two teams who struggle to create offense at even strength are going to play, as long as the goalies are trustworthy, I’m going to bet the under. Espescially when it comes at (+) money like it has a few times over the past couple of days. Scoring might be up across the league, but at times these adjustments can go too far. If Gibson and Dmeko are confirmed I would make this line Under 6, and with me unable to see a reason why it would be anyone but the pair in the net, I’m going to fire away and collect the CLV.
Under 6.5 +105 (play to -111)
DaCoochie’s Quartet (0-1, -1 Unit)
Just like the rest of you, I too am a degenerate gambler who fantasizes about hitting big-time parlays. So with that in mind once or twice a week I’m going to give out a Parlay I perceive to have positive expected value in hopes of cashing some big swings and paying for some big things. I will track the record of the parlay separately in this section moving forward
New Jersey Devils ML x Dallas Stars ML x Arizona Coyotes ML x Edmonton Oilers ML +950